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TED Talks Worth Sharing, Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises

Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises

The first half of the 20th century was an absolute disaster in human affairs, a cataclysm. We had the First World War, the Great Depression, the Second World War and the rise of the communist nations. And each one of these forces split the world, tore the world apart, divided the world. And they threw up walls -- political walls, trade walls, transportation walls, communication walls, iron curtains -- which divided peoples and nations.

It was only in the second half of the 20th century that we slowly began to pull ourselves out of this abyss. Trade walls began to come tumbling down. Here are some data on tariffs: starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent. We globalized the world. And what does that mean? It means that we extended cooperation across national boundaries; we made the world more cooperative. Transportation walls came tumbling down. You know in 1950 the typical ship carried 5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods. Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons; it can be manned with a smaller crew; and unloaded faster than ever before. Communication walls, I don't have to tell you -- the Internet -- have come tumbling down. And of course the iron curtains, political walls have come tumbling down.

Now all of this has been tremendous for the world. Trade has increased. Here is just a little bit of data. In 1990, exports from China to the United States: 15 billion dollars. By 2007: over 300 billion dollars. And perhaps most remarkably, at the beginning of the 21st century, really for the first time in modern history, growth extended to almost all parts of the world. So China, I've already mentioned, beginning around 1978, around the time of the death of Mao, growth -- ten percent a year. Year after year after year, absolutely incredible. Never before in human history have so many people been raised out of such great poverty as happened in China. China is the world's greatest anti-poverty program over the last three decades. India, starting a little bit later, but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth. Incomes at that time less than $1,000 per year. And over the next 18 years have almost tripled. Growth of six percent a year. Absolutely incredible. Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa -- Sub-Saharan Africa has been the area of the world most resistant to growth. And we can see the tragedy of Africa in the first few bars here. Growth was negative. People were actually getting poorer than their parents, and sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been. But at the end of the 20th century, the beginning of the 21st century, we saw growth in Africa. And I think, as you'll see, there's reasons for optimism, because I believe that the best is yet to come. Now why.

On the cutting edge today it's new ideas which are driving growth. And by that I mean it's products for which the research and development costs are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low. More than ever before it is these types of ideas which are driving growth on the cutting edge. Now ideas have this amazing property. Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well. He said, "He who receives an idea from me receives instruction himself, without lessening mine. As he who lights his candle at mine receives light without darkening me. Or to put it slightly differently: one apple feeds one man, but an idea can feed the world." Now this is not new. This is practically not new to TEDsters. This is practically the model of TED. But what is new is that the greater function of ideas is going to drive growth even more than ever before. This provides a reason why trade and globalization are even more important, more powerful than ever before, and are going to increase growth more than ever before.

And to explain why this is so, I have a question. Suppose that there are two diseases: one of them is rare, the other one is common, but if they are not treated they are equally severe. If you had to choose, which would you rather have: the common disease or the rare disease? Common, the common -- I think that's absolutely right, and why? Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases than there are to treat rare diseases. The reason for this is incentives. It costs about the same to produce a new drug whether that drug treats 1,000 people, 100,000 people, or a million people. But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people. So the incentives are much larger to produce drugs which treat more people. To put this differently: larger markets save lives. In this case misery truly does love company.

Now think about the following: if China and India were as rich as the United States is today, the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now. Now we are not there yet, but it is happening. As other countries become richer the demand for these pharmaceuticals is going to increase tremendously. And that means an increase incentive to do research and development, which benefits everyone in the world. Larger markets increase the incentive to produce all kinds of ideas, whether it's software, whether it's a computer chip, whether it's a new design. For the Hollywood people in the audience, this even explains why action movies have larger budgets than comedies: it's because action movies translate easier into other languages and other cultures, so the market for those movies is larger. People are willing to invest more, and the budgets are larger.

Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive to produce new ideas, how do we maximize that incentive? It's by having one world market, by globalizing the world. The way I like to put this is: one idea. Ideas are meant to be shared, so one idea can serve one world, one market. One idea, one world, one market.

Well how else can we create new ideas? That's one reason. Globalize trade. How else can we create new ideas? Well, more idea creators. Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life. Artists and innovators -- many of the people you've seen on this stage. I'm going to focus on scientists and engineers because I have some data on that, and I'm a data person.

Now, today, less than one-tenth of one percent of the world's population are scientists and engineers. (Laughter) The United States has been an idea leader. A large fraction of those people are in the United States. But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership. And for that I am very grateful. That is a good thing. It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader because for too long the United States, and a handful of other developed countries, have shouldered the entire burden of research and development. But consider the following: if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers contributing to ideas which benefit everyone, which are shared by everyone. I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan. How many Ramanujans are there in India today toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves, when they could be feeding the world? Now we're not there yet. But it is going to happen in this century. The real tragedy of the last century is this: if you think about the world's population as a giant computer, a massively parallel processor, then the great tragedy has been that billions of our processors have been off line. But in this century China is coming on line. India is coming on line. Africa is coming on line. We will see an Einstein in Africa in this century.

Here is just some data. This is China. 1996: less than one million new university students in China per year; 2006: over five million. Now think what this means. This means we all benefit when another country gets rich. We should not fear other countries becoming wealthy. That is something that we should embrace -- a wealthy China, a wealthy India, a wealthy Africa. We need a greater demand for ideas -- those larger markets I was talking about earlier -- and a greater supply of ideas for the world. Now you can see some of the reasons why I'm optimistic. Globalization is increasing the demand for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas. Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.

In fact if you look at world history you can see some reasons for optimism. From about the beginnings of humanity to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing. 1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth, but less in a century than you expect to see in a year today. 1900s: maybe one percent. Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent. Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent. Even at that rate, by 2100 average GDP per capita in the world will be $200,000. That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million, but world GDP per capita -- $200,000. That's not that far. We won't make it. But some of our grandchildren probably will. And I should say, I think this is a rather modest prediction. In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy. In Kurzweilian terms I'm like the Eeyore of economic growth. (Laughter)

Alright what about problems? What about a great depression? Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression. Here is GDP per capita from 1900 to 1929. Now let's imagine that you were an economist in 1929, trying to forecast future growth for the United States, not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff, not knowing that we were about to enter the greatest economic disaster certainly in the 20th century. What would you have predicted, not knowing this? If you had based your prediction, your forecast on 1900 to 1929 you'd have predicted something like this. If you'd been a little more optimistic -- say, based upon the Roaring Twenties -- you'd have said this. So what actually happened? We went off a cliff but we recovered. In fact in the second half of the 20th century growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted based upon the first half of the 20th century. So growth can wash away even what appears to be a great depression.

Alright. What else? Oil. Oil. This was a big topic. When I was writing up my notes oil was $140 per barrel. So people were asking a question. They were saying, "Is China drinking our milkshake?" (Laughter) And there is some truth to this, in the sense that we have something of a finite resource, and increased growth is going to push up demand for that. But I think I don't have to tell this audience that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing. Moreover, as everyone knows, look -- it's energy, not oil, which counts. And higher oil prices mean a greater incentive to invest in energy R&D. You can see this in the data. As oil prices go up, energy patents go up. The world is much better equipped to overcome an increase in the price of oil today, than ever in the past, because of what I'm talking about. One idea, one world, one market.

So I'm optimistic so long as we hew to these two ideas: to keep globalizing world markets, keep extending cooperation across national boundaries, and keep investing in education. Now the United States has a particularly important role to play in this: to keep our education system globalized, to keep our education system open to students from all over the world, because our education system is the candle that other students come to light their own candles. Now remember here what Jefferson said. Jefferson said, "When they come and light their candles at ours, they gain light, and we are not darkened." But Jefferson wasn't quite right, was he? Because the truth is, when they light their candles at ours, there is twice as much light available for everyone. So my view is: Be optimistic. Spread the ideas. Spread the light. Thank you. (Applause)

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The first half of the 20th century was an absolute disaster in human affairs, a cataclysm. |||||||||||||||Katastrophe |||||||||||||||كارثة |||||||||||||||cataclysm النصف الأول من القرن العشرين كان كارثة مطلقة في الشؤون الإنسانية ، كارثة. We had the First World War, the Great Depression, the Second World War and the rise of the communist nations. ||||||||||||||||||kommunistischen| ||||||||الاكتئاب|||العالم|||||||الشيوعية| And each one of these forces split the world, tore the world apart, divided the world. |كل|||||قسم|||مزق|العالم|العالم|||| And they threw up walls -- political walls, trade walls, transportation walls, communication walls, iron curtains -- which divided peoples and nations. ||||||||||||جدران|حديد|ستائر|||الشعوب||

It was only in the second half of the 20th century that we slowly began to pull ourselves out of this abyss. |||||||||||||||||||||Abgrund ||||||||||||||||نسحب|||||الهاوية Trade walls began to come tumbling down. |||||تسقط| Here are some data on tariffs: starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent. |||||Zöllen||||||||| |||||الرسوم الجمركية||||||||| We globalized the world. |globalisierten|| |عولمنا|| And what does that mean? It means that we extended cooperation across national boundaries; we made the world more cooperative. ||||erweiterten|||||||||| ||||||||الحدود||||||تعاونية Transportation walls came tumbling down. You know in 1950 the typical ship carried 5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods. ||||||||أطنان||| |||||Schiff|||||| ||||||carried||||| كما تعلم، في عام 1950، كانت السفينة النموذجية تحمل ما بين 5000 إلى 10000 طن من البضائع. Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons; it can be manned with a smaller crew; and unloaded faster than ever before. ||Container|||||||||||||||||| ||حاوية||||||||يُشغَّل||||||يتم تفريغه|||| اليوم، يمكن لسفينة الحاويات أن تحمل 150000 طن؛ ويمكن أن يديرها طاقم أصغر؛ وتفريغها أسرع من أي وقت مضى. Communication walls, I don’t have to tell you -- the Internet -- have come tumbling down. جدران التواصل، لا أحتاج إلى إخبارك - الإنترنت - قد انهارت. And of course the iron curtains, political walls have come tumbling down.

Now all of this has been tremendous for the world. ||||||رائع||| Trade has increased. Here is just a little bit of data. In 1990, exports from China to the United States: 15 billion dollars. |Exporten|||||||| |الصادرات|||||||| By 2007: over 300 billion dollars. And perhaps most remarkably, at the beginning of the 21st century, really for the first time in modern history, growth extended to almost all parts of the world. |||على نحو ملحوظ|||||||||||||||||||||||| So China, I’ve already mentioned, beginning around 1978, around the time of the death of Mao, growth -- ten percent a year. ||||||||||||||ماو||||| Year after year after year, absolutely incredible. ||||||رائع Never before in human history have so many people been raised out of such great poverty as happened in China. ||||||||||أُخرج||||||||| لم يحدث في تاريخ البشرية من قبل أن تم رفع عدد كبير من الناس من فقر شديد كما حدث في الصين. China is the world’s greatest anti-poverty program over the last three decades. تعتبر الصين أكبر برنامج لمكافحة الفقر في العالم على مدى الثلاثة عقود الماضية. India, starting a little bit later, but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth. ||||||||verursachte|| ||||||||حقق|| الهند، التي بدأت في وقت متأخر قليلاً، ولكن في عام 1990، حققت نمواً هائلاً. Индия, начавшаяся немного позже, в 1990 году, дала толчок огромному росту. Incomes at that time less than $1,000 per year. Einkommen||||||| And over the next 18 years have almost tripled. |||||||verdreifacht |||||||تضاعف Growth of six percent a year. Absolutely incredible. |unglaublich Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa -- Sub-Saharan Africa has been the area of the world most resistant to growth. ||السُّفلى|الصحراء||||||||||||||| And we can see the tragedy of Africa in the first few bars here. ||||||||||||نوتات| И уже в первых тактах мы видим трагедию Африки. Growth was negative. People were actually getting poorer than their parents, and sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been. ||||أفقر|||||||||||| But at the end of the 20th century, the beginning of the 21st century, we saw growth in Africa. And I think, as you’ll see, there’s reasons for optimism, because I believe that the best is yet to come. |||||||||التفاؤل|||||||||| Now why.

On the cutting edge today it’s new ideas which are driving growth. في||||||||||| في المقدمة اليوم، إنها الأفكار الجديدة التي تدفع النمو. And by that I mean it’s products for which the research and development costs are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low. |||||||||||||||||||Fertigung||| |||||||||||||||||||التصنيع||| وأعني بذلك أنها المنتجات التي تكون فيها تكاليف البحث والتطوير مرتفعة حقًا، وتكاليف التصنيع منخفضة. More than ever before it is these types of ideas which are driving growth on the cutting edge. أكثر من أي وقت مضى، هي هذه الأنواع من الأفكار التي تدفع النمو في المقدمة. Now ideas have this amazing property. |||||Eigenschaft Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well. |Jefferson||||||| توماس|||||||| He said, "He who receives an idea from me receives instruction himself, without lessening mine. |||||||||erhält||||mindernd| |||||||||||||ينقص| As he who lights his candle at mine receives light without darkening me. |||||||||||dunkeln| Or to put it slightly differently: one apple feeds one man, but an idea can feed the world." ||||leicht||||||||||||| Now this is not new. This is practically not new to TEDsters. This is practically the model of TED. But what is new is that the greater function of ideas is going to drive growth even more than ever before. This provides a reason why trade and globalization are even more important, more powerful than ever before, and are going to increase growth more than ever before.

And to explain why this is so, I have a question. Suppose that there are two diseases: one of them is rare, the other one is common, but if they are not treated they are equally severe. ||||||||||نادرة|||||||||||||||شديدة If you had to choose, which would you rather have: the common disease or the rare disease? Common, the common -- I think that’s absolutely right, and why? Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases than there are to treat rare diseases. ||||||علاج||||||||| The reason for this is incentives. |||||الحوافز |||||incentives It costs about the same to produce a new drug whether that drug treats 1,000 people, 100,000 people, or a million people. |||||||||||||behandelt|||||| |||||||||||||يعالج|||||| But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people. ||Einnahmen|||||||behandelt||| |ال|الإيرادات|||||||||| So the incentives are much larger to produce drugs which treat more people. To put this differently: larger markets save lives. In this case misery truly does love company. |||البؤس||||

Now think about the following: if China and India were as rich as the United States is today, the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now. Now we are not there yet, but it is happening. As other countries become richer the demand for these pharmaceuticals is going to increase tremendously. ||||أغنى|||||الأدوية|||||بشكل كبير And that means an increase incentive to do research and development, which benefits everyone in the world. |||||حافز||||||||||| Larger markets increase the incentive to produce all kinds of ideas, whether it’s software, whether it’s a computer chip, whether it’s a new design. |||ال|||||||||||||||شريحة||||| For the Hollywood people in the audience, this even explains why action movies have larger budgets than comedies: it’s because action movies translate easier into other languages and other cultures, so the market for those movies is larger. |||||||||||||||ميزانيات||الكوميديا||لأن|||||||||||||||||| People are willing to invest more, and the budgets are larger.

Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive to produce new ideas, how do we maximize that incentive? ||||||||||||||||Anreiz ||||||||||||||نعظم||الحافز It’s by having one world market, by globalizing the world. |||||||globalisieren|| |||||||عولمة|| The way I like to put this is: one idea. Ideas are meant to be shared, so one idea can serve one world, one market. One idea, one world, one market.

Well how else can we create new ideas? That’s one reason. Globalize trade. Globalize| العولمة| How else can we create new ideas? Well, more idea creators. |||مبدعي Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life. |||||||مناحي|| Artists and innovators -- many of the people you’ve seen on this stage. ||المبتكرون||||||||| I’m going to focus on scientists and engineers because I have some data on that, and I’m a data person.

Now, today, less than one-tenth of one percent of the world’s population are scientists and engineers. |||||zehntel||||||||||| |||||عشر||||||||||| Сегодня ученые и инженеры составляют менее одной десятой процента населения Земли. (Laughter) The United States has been an idea leader. A large fraction of those people are in the United States. ||Teil|||||||| |كبيرة|جزء|||||||| But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership. ||||Führung تخسر قيادتها الفكرية. And for that I am very grateful. ومن أجل ذلك أنا ممتن للغاية. That is a good thing. هذه شيء جيد. It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader because for too long the United States, and a handful of other developed countries, have shouldered the entire burden of research and development. ||glücklich|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||من الجيد|||||||||||||||||||عدد قليل|||||قد|تحملت|||عبء|||| من المحظوظ أننا نصبح أقل قادة أفكار لأن الولايات المتحدة، ويدها القليل من البلدان المتقدمة الأخرى، قد تحملت العبء الكامل للبحث والتطوير لفترة طويلة جدًا. But consider the following: if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers contributing to ideas which benefit everyone, which are shared by everyone. |betrachten|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||ال|||||||||||||||||يساهمون|||||||||| ولكن ضع في اعتبارك ما يلي: إذا كانت العالم بأسره غنيًا كما هو حال الولايات المتحدة الآن، فسيكون هناك أكثر من خمسة أضعاف عدد العلماء والمهندسين الذين يساهمون في أفكار تفيد الجميع، والتي يتم مشاركتها من قبل الجميع. I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan. ||||||Mathematiker|Ramanujan |||||الهندي|الرياضي|رامانوجان أفكر في عالم الرياضيات الهندي العظيم، رامانوجان. How many Ramanujans are there in India today toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves, when they could be feeding the world? ||Ramanujan||||||||||||||||||||| ||رامانوجان||||||يعملون|||||||||||||إطعام|| كم عدد الرامانوجان الموجودين في الهند اليوم يعملون في الحقول، بالكاد يستطيعون إطعام أنفسهم، عندما يمكنهم إطعام العالم؟ Now we’re not there yet. now|||| الآن، لا زلنا لم نصل إلى هناك بعد. But it is going to happen in this century. ولكن سوف يحدث ذلك في هذا القرن. The real tragedy of the last century is this: if you think about the world’s population as a giant computer, a massively parallel processor, then the great tragedy has been that billions of our processors have been off line. |||||||||||||||||||||massiv||||||||||||||||| ||مأساة||||||||||||||||عملاق|||بشكل ضخم|متوازي|معالج|||||||||||المعالجات|||off|الخط المأساة الحقيقية في القرن الماضي هي هذه: إذا فكرت في سكان العالم كأنهم كمبيوتر عملاق، معالج متوازي بشكل هائل، فإن المأساة العظيمة هي أن مليارات من معالجاتنا كانت خارج الخدمة. But in this century China is coming on line. ولكن في هذا القرن، تتقدم الصين. India is coming on line. تتقدم الهند. Africa is coming on line. We will see an Einstein in Africa in this century. ||||أينشتاين|||||

Here is just some data. This is China. 1996: less than one million new university students in China per year; 2006: over five million. Now think what this means. This means we all benefit when another country gets rich. We should not fear other countries becoming wealthy. |||||||غنية That is something that we should embrace -- a wealthy China, a wealthy India, a wealthy Africa. We need a greater demand for ideas -- those larger markets I was talking about earlier -- and a greater supply of ideas for the world. Now you can see some of the reasons why I’m optimistic. Globalization is increasing the demand for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas. العولمة|||||||||||| ||||||||incentive|||| Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas. ||||||إمداد|||

In fact if you look at world history you can see some reasons for optimism. In fact if you look at world history you can see some reasons for optimism. From about the beginnings of humanity to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing. |||Anfängen||||||| |||بدايات||||||| 1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth, but less in a century than you expect to see in a year today. 1900s: maybe one percent. Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent. Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent. Even at that rate, by 2100 average GDP per capita in the world will be $200,000. ||||||||Kopf||||| ||||||الناتج المحلي الإجمالي||الفرد||||| That’s not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million, but world GDP per capita -- $200,000. That’s not that far. We won’t make it. But some of our grandchildren probably will. ||||الأحفاد|| And I should say, I think this is a rather modest prediction. ||||||||||bescheidene| ||||||||||متواضعة|توقع ويجب أن أقول، أعتقد أن هذا توقع متواضع إلى حد ما. In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy. |Kurzweilian|||| |كورزويليان||||مظلم بالنسبة لكورزويل، هذا متشائم. In Kurzweilian terms I’m like the Eeyore of economic growth. ||||||Eeyore||| ||||||إيeyore||| بالنسبة لكورزويل، أنا مثل إيور في النمو الاقتصادي. (Laughter)

Alright what about problems? What about a great depression? |||عظيم|ركود Well let’s take a look. Let’s take a look at the Great Depression. |||||||الكساد Here is GDP per capita from 1900 to 1929. Now let’s imagine that you were an economist in 1929, trying to forecast future growth for the United States, not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff, not knowing that we were about to enter the greatest economic disaster certainly in the 20th century. |||||||اقتصادي||||توقع||||||||||||||||||منحدر||||||||||||||||| الآن دعنا نتخيل أنك كنت اقتصاديًا في عام 1929، تحاول التنبؤ بالنمو المستقبلي للولايات المتحدة، دون أن تعرف أن الاقتصاد كان على وشك الانهيار، ودون أن تعلم أننا على وشك الدخول في أعظم كارثة اقتصادية بالتأكيد في القرن العشرين. What would you have predicted, not knowing this? ||||vorhergesagt||| ||||توقعت||| ماذا كنت ستتنبأ به، دون أن تعرف هذا؟ If you had based your prediction, your forecast on 1900 to 1929 you’d have predicted something like this. إذا كنت قد استندت في تنبؤك، توقعك على الفترة من 1900 إلى 1929، كنت ستتنبأ بشيء مثل هذا. If you’d been a little more optimistic -- say, based upon the Roaring Twenties -- you’d have said this. ||||||||||||Zwanziger|||| |||||||||||الصاخبة|العشرينات|||| So what actually happened? We went off a cliff but we recovered. |||||||نجونا In fact in the second half of the 20th century growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted based upon the first half of the 20th century. ||||||||||||||||||||استنادًا|||||||| So growth can wash away even what appears to be a great depression. |||يغسل||||||||| لذا يمكن أن يغسل النمو حتى ما يبدو أنه اكتئاب عظيم.

Alright. حسناً. What else? ماذا أيضًا؟ Oil. Oil. This was a big topic. When I was writing up my notes oil was $140 per barrel. ||||||ملاحظاتي||||برميل So people were asking a question. They were saying, "Is China drinking our milkshake?" |||||||حليب مخفوق كانوا يقولون: "هل تشرب الصين مشروباتنا؟" (Laughter) And there is some truth to this, in the sense that we have something of a finite resource, and increased growth is going to push up demand for that. (ضحك) وهناك بعض الحقيقة في ذلك، من حيث أن لدينا شيئًا من الموارد المحدودة، وزيادة النمو ستؤدي إلى زيادة الطلب على ذلك. But I think I don’t have to tell this audience that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing. ||||||||||||||||||بالضرورة||| لكن أعتقد أنني لا أحتاج إلى إخبار هذا الجمهور أن ارتفاع سعر النفط ليس بالضرورة شيئًا سيئًا. Moreover, as everyone knows, look -- it’s energy, not oil, which counts. علاوة على ذلك||||||||||يهم And higher oil prices mean a greater incentive to invest in energy R&D. You can see this in the data. As oil prices go up, energy patents go up. ||||||براءات الاختراع|| مع ارتفاع أسعار النفط، ترتفع براءات اختراع الطاقة. The world is much better equipped to overcome an increase in the price of oil today, than ever in the past, because of what I’m talking about. |||||مُجهز||||||||||||||||||||| العالم مجهز بشكل أفضل بكثير للتغلب على زيادة أسعار النفط اليوم، أكثر من أي وقت مضى في الماضي، بسبب ما أتحدث عنه. One idea, one world, one market. فكرة واحدة، عالم واحد، سوق واحد.

So I’m optimistic so long as we hew to these two ideas: to keep globalizing world markets, keep extending cooperation across national boundaries, and keep investing in education. |||||||نلتزم|||||||||||تمديد|||||||الاستثمار|| |||||||hew|||||||||||||||||||| Поэтому я настроен оптимистично, если мы будем придерживаться этих двух идей: продолжать глобализацию мировых рынков, расширять сотрудничество через национальные границы и продолжать инвестировать в образование. Now the United States has a particularly important role to play in this: to keep our education system globalized, to keep our education system open to students from all over the world, because our education system is the candle that other students come to light their own candles. ||||||||||||||||||عولمة|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||الشموع Now remember here what Jefferson said. ||||جيفرسون| Jefferson said, "When they come and light their candles at ours, they gain light, and we are not darkened." ||||||||||منزلنا||||||||تظلم But Jefferson wasn’t quite right, was he? لكن جيفرسون لم يكن محقاً تماماً، أليس كذلك؟ Because the truth is, when they light their candles at ours, there is twice as much light available for everyone. لأن الحقيقة هي، عندما يضيئون شموعهم عند شموعنا، يكون هناك ضعف في الضوء المتاح للجميع. So my view is: Be optimistic. لذا فإن وجهة نظري هي: كن متفائلاً. Spread the ideas. Spread the light. Thank you. (Applause)