Stanford Entrepreneurship corner, Richard Scheller Developing Products that Save Lives No.2

Richard Scheller Developing Products that Save Lives No.2

I'm in charge of discovering medicines that will make a real difference in people's lives. So, as you may know Genentech is now an incorporated company in the United States but 100 percent owned by a large Swiss drug company called Roche. But our group is completely independent and our job is to discover medicines that make a difference. We don't make any generic drugs. We don't make any copies of other drugs. Innovation is our... We're going to live or die based on innovation. We also believe very strongly in the view of personalized medicine. That is, making medicines that are tailored to individuals.

The Roche group owns two businesses: a pharmaceutical business and a diagnostic business. So, very large, I don't know, maybe fourth, fifth largest pharmaceutical company in the world and the largest diagnostic company in the world. So the idea is to make medicines that really, really deliver benefit-tangible, terrific benefit-for people. So if we make a medicine for somebody with cancer, we have to show that they actually live longer when they take the medicine, for example. So I oversee research.

So our research group is about 1,300 folks. We have about 150 other people who are post docs. Now, why would we have a post-doc program? People come through. They come from all over the world. They stay for four five years. They bring in new techniques and ideas. They're not cynical yet. They work at night and in the weekends and it just energizes the place. Then we have scientists at various levels. And the job of the scientist is two-fold, to do basic science. We'd like to give each of our scientists somewhere, some what we call discretionary time. Maybe that's somewhere between 10 and 30 percent of their time, so it depends on the individuals. Some people are, frankly, it's a 100 percent but that's a different topic. And with their discretionary time, they're supposed to just do interesting things. Do whatever you want; make a discovery, publish a paper. We published 20 papers in science, nature and cell last year; hundreds of papers overall from the company.

But the other real tangible deliverable of the scientist is to come up with a medicine and move that medicine into what we call early development. And in early development, the compound goes through various further stages of testing to make sure that it's safe. We do all the work to file in I&D. That's a new drug application with the FDA and we file the I&D and then we do the clinical studies Phase I and Phase II. In Phase I, you usually just treat patients. Then, make sure that the drug is safe. You start at a very, very low dose. I mean, imagine, putting something into a human that's never been in a human before. Slowly, escalate the dose. It depends on the disease. Sometimes it will be in patients with the disease, sometimes not. But then, usually in Phase II, you do a relatively small number of patients but enough patients so that you have statistical power to see that you're making a difference in the disease. And what we then do would be, if their Phase II trial works, to hand the medicine to them, the Global Development Group, to do the final clinical testing. And the final clinical testing would then be done in 80 countries around the world. It's a logistical absolute nightmare. It's done in many, many more patients so that the statistical power increases dramatically. And then, work with the regulatory authorities to get permission, if you will-so the FDA, in case of the United States-permission to market the drug. So my job is to deliver molecules that we say have gone through proof of concept. We believe that they work. We have the chemical entity. We know that it can be manufactured and to hand this to the Global Group where there's a lot of science involved but there's a huge amount of logistics and regulatory involvement. And that's when the commercial people get involved and so on. Frankly, I'm less interested in that. I then go back and try to discover a new medicine and show that it works.

From the concept of "maybe this molecule would work in this disease" to actually marketing the drug, well, it depends. If it went incredibly fast it could be ten years. It's more like 15 years and the average cost is about $1.5 billion to get it to the market. Now the $1.5 billion includes the failures. So that's taken into account. So how many make it? That varies from company to company. I would say probably on the average 10 percent make it. For us, it's probably more like 25 percent. But I think the industry is going to do much, much better in the next decade. And the reason is that there's been an explosion in knowledge about biology. What I think was happening in the industry in the '80s and the '90s, there were a bunch of successes. Drug companies-Merck, Pfizer, Roche-they were making tons of money. And then, they're saying "But we've got to stay a growth company. We need to grow." So they gave a lot of money to the heads of R&D. But frankly, they weren't very good targets. But what is the head of R&D supposed to do? Say, "I don't know what to do. They aren't very good target. Here, take the money back"? No, of course not. They spent the money on lousy targets. But, during that time, there was a tremendous revolution in the understanding of biology that was taking place which, as I said, is partially why I moved to industry. And I think that now there are incredible targets that we work on. Think about cancer. We take the cancer, we take the tumor, we sequence the DNA of the tumor. When we sequence the DNA of the normal tissue, we find out what genes are mutated, what genes are actually causing the cell to be a cancer cell. And then, it target those. Is that going to work? Yes, it's going to work. But they are working. You know they work. But that is just terrific sort of pre-clinical validation. Those are the kinds of things that you want to work on versus not knowing what to work on. So, it's an expensive and difficult process. Also, the industry is facing a lot of head wins from various countries including our country, on being willing to pay for prescription drugs. Some of our drugs are extremely expensive. If we make a drug for a certain cancer on their 10,000 patients per year, it's not unusual to charge around $50,000, $60,000 a year for the drug, which we have to in order to basically re-coup the investment. But, look, if you're going to live longer we think it's delivering value. If you're going to take some risks and some big risk, you're going to have a higher chance of failure. But these risks if they work out, you can have some really big hits. So, how do you encourage that type of innovation and risk taking in the organization if people know that, "Boy, if I fail, this is going to be an incredibly expensive failure."? So there must be a lot of tension between that or how do you walk that line - trying to encourage risk-taking and innovation and not wanting to have some big failures. Yeah. Well, we just have to accept that we're going to have big failures. So we have a portfolio balance portfolio approach. So, for instance, in the Phase III, portfolio now has 13 new molecular entities. So with that, that's a new compound. I say 13 because there are probably 50 clinical studies going on. Sometimes the molecules are tested in more than one type of cancer, for example, and those are separate studies. So 13 new molecular entities, each one, by that stage, has a commercial value associated with it. That's also getting better but those are usually wrong. I mean, the drug that we sell a lytic for dissolving blood clot was supposed to be a several billion dollar drug and it sells $200 million a year. And a drug for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was supposed to be a couple of hundred million a year and last year, it was the largest selling drug in the Roche group and sold $6 billion. So it's just the opposite of what the commercial prediction's worth. But that's better now than it was 10 years ago. So we have a commercial value associated with each molecule. And then, we have associated with that a probability of technical success, a probability that the molecule will work in Phase III. And we take that all the way back, even to the portfolio that I managed in Phase I, where we have a probability of technical success of the molecule getting to the market. So what's the probability it will make it through Phase I, probability through Phase II, Phase III, through regulatory. Obviously, as a molecule moves through the pipeline, the probability goes up as it passes one hurdle, and the next hurdle and the hurdle. So, we have a portfolio with known value for each molecule and the probability of the molecules working. And then, we balance the portfolio with more risky projects and projects that we feel are close to a slam dunk, if there ever is such a thing in our business, and manage the portfolio that way.

Richard Scheller Developing Products that Save Lives No.2 Richard Scheller||||||| Richard Scheller Entwicklung von Produkten, die Leben retten Nr.2 Richard Scheller Desarrollando productos que salvan vidas nº 2 Richard Scheller Développer des produits qui sauvent des vies No.2 Richard Scheller Sviluppare prodotti che salvano vite umane n. 2 リチャード・シェラー命を救う製品の開発 No.2 생명을 구하는 제품을 개발하는 리처드 셸러 No.2 Richard Scheller Desenvolver produtos que salvam vidas N.º 2 Ричард Шеллер Разработка продуктов, которые спасают жизни №2 Richard Scheller Hayat Kurtaran Ürünler Geliştirmek No.2 Річард Шеллер Розробка продуктів, що рятують життя №2 理查德·谢勒 (Richard Scheller) 开发拯救生命的产品 No.2 理查德謝勒 (Richard Scheller) 開發拯救生命的產品 No.2

I'm in charge of discovering medicines that will make a real difference in people's lives. ||||발견하는 것|||||||||| ||||découvrir|médicaments||||||||| ||sorumluyum||keşfetmek|ilaçlar||||||||insanların| Я занимаюсь разработкой лекарств, которые реально изменят жизнь людей. So, as you may know Genentech is now an incorporated company in the United States but 100 percent owned by a large Swiss drug company called Roche. |||||||||||||||||||||스위스의||||로슈 |||||||||||||||||possédée||||suisse||||Roche |||||Genentech şirketi||||kurulmuş şirket||||||||||||İsviçreli||||Roche şirketi But our group is completely independent and our job is to discover medicines that make a difference. |||||bağımsız||||||||||| We don't make any generic drugs. ||||일반 의약품| ||||génériques| ||||jenerik|ilaçlar Мы не производим дженериков. We don't make any copies of other drugs. ||||kopyalar||| Innovation is our... We're going to live or die based on innovation. Yenilikçilik|||||||||||yenilikçilik Инновации - это наше... Мы будем жить или умрем, основываясь на инновациях. We also believe very strongly in the view of personalized medicine. ||croyons|||||||| ||||güçlü bir şekilde|||||kişiye özel|kişiselleştirilmiş tıp Мы также очень верим в идею персонализированной медицины. That is, making medicines that are tailored to individuals. ||||||맞춤형|| ||||||adaptées|| |||ilaçlar|||uyarlanmış||bireyler ||||||個別化された|| То есть создание лекарств, которые подбираются индивидуально.

The Roche group owns two businesses: a pharmaceutical business and a diagnostic business. |||||||제약 사업||||진단 사업| |||||||ilaç||||teşhis işi| |||||||||||診断| So, very large, I don't know, maybe fourth, fifth largest pharmaceutical company in the world and the largest diagnostic company in the world. ||||||||||||||||||진단 회사|||| ||||||||||ilaç şirketi||||||||teşhis koyma|||| So the idea is to make medicines that really, really deliver benefit-tangible, terrific benefit-for people. |||||||||||이익|실질적인|||| ||||||ilaçlar||||sağlamak|fayda sağlamak|somut|muhteşem|fayda sağlamak|| Идея состоит в том, чтобы создавать лекарства, которые действительно приносят пользу - ощутимую, потрясающую пользу для людей. So if we make a medicine for somebody with cancer, we have to show that they actually live longer when they take the medicine, for example. ||||||||||||||||||plus longtemps||||||| |||||||||kanser hastası|||||||||||||||| So I oversee research. ||연구를 관리하다| ||supervise| ||Araştırmayı denetlerim.|araştırma çalışmaları Поэтому я слежу за исследованиями.

So our research group is about 1,300 folks. ||||||kişiler We have about 150 other people who are post docs. |||||||en train de rédiger| ||||||||doktora sonrası araştırmacı Tenemos unas 150 personas más que son postdoctorales. У нас есть еще около 150 человек, которые являются постдоками. Now, why would we have a post-doc program? |||||||박사 후 과정| ||||||doktora sonrası program|| People come through. İnsanlar gelir.|| Люди проходят. They come from all over the world. They stay for four five years. Они остаются на четыре-пять лет. They bring in new techniques and ideas. ||||teknikler|| They're not cynical yet. ||그들은 아직 냉소적이지 않다.| ||cyniques| Onlar||Henüz alaycı değiller.| ||皮肉な| Они еще не циничны. They work at night and in the weekends and it just energizes the place. |||||||||||énergise|| |||||||||||canlandırıyor|| Они работают по ночам и в выходные, и это заряжает энергией. Then we have scientists at various levels. |||bilim insanları||| Затем у нас есть ученые разных уровней. And the job of the scientist is two-fold, to do basic science. |||||||iki yönlü|iki yönlü|||| |||||||二重||||| И работа ученого двойная: заниматься фундаментальной наукой. We'd like to give each of our scientists somewhere, some what we call discretionary time. |||||||||||||재량의 시간| |||||||||||||discrétionnaire| |||||||||||||takdir yetkisi| |||||||||||||裁量の| Мы хотели бы предоставить каждому из наших ученых некоторое количество времени, которое мы называем свободным. Maybe that's somewhere between 10 and 30 percent of their time, so it depends on the individuals. ||||||||||||||bireyler Some people are, frankly, it's a 100 percent but that's a different topic. |||franchement|||||||| |||dürüst olmak gerekirse||||||||farklı konu Некоторые, честно говоря, на 100 процентов, но это уже другая тема. And with their discretionary time, they're supposed to just do interesting things. |||재량의|||||||| |||isteğe bağlı|||||||| Do whatever you want; make a discovery, publish a paper. |||||||논문을 발표하다|| ||||||keşif yapmak||| We published 20 papers in science, nature and cell last year; hundreds of papers overall from the company. |avons publié||||||||||||||| ||makale|||Nature dergisinde||Cell dergisinde||||||genel olarak|||

But the other real tangible deliverable of the scientist is to come up with a medicine and move that medicine into what we call early development. ||||실질적인|성과물||||||개발하다|올리다||||||||||||| |||||livrable|||||||proposer||||||||||||| |||||tangible outcome|||||||||||||||||||| ||||somut|teslim edilebilir çıktı||||||||||ilaç||||ilaç||||||erken geliştirme aşaması 그러나 과학자의 다른 실제적인 결과물은 의약품을 개발하고 그 의약품을 우리가 초기 개발이라고 부르는 단계로 이동시키는 것입니다. And in early development, the compound goes through various further stages of testing to make sure that it's safe. |||||화합물||||||||||||| |||geliştirme aşaması|bu|bileşik||||daha ileri|aşamalar|||||||| Y en las primeras fases de desarrollo, el compuesto se somete a diversas pruebas para garantizar su seguridad. 초기 개발 단계에서는 화합물이 안전한지 확인하기 위해 다양한 추가 테스트 단계를 거칩니다. We do all the work to file in I&D. 우리는 I&D를 제출하기 위한 모든 작업을 수행합니다. Мы выполняем всю работу по подаче документов в I&D. That's a new drug application with the FDA and we file the I&D and then we do the clinical studies Phase I and Phase II. |||||||식품의약국||||||||||||임상 연구|||||| |||||||||||||||||||clinique|||||| ||||başvuru|||FDA (Amerikan Gıda ve İlaç Dairesi)||||||||||||klinik|çalışmalar|Faz||||Faz II In Phase I, you usually just treat patients. ||||||traitez|patients ||||||tedavi edersiniz|hastaları Then, make sure that the drug is safe. You start at a very, very low dose. |||||||아주 낮은 용량 |||||||Çok düşük doz I mean, imagine, putting something into a human that's never been in a human before. Slowly, escalate the dose. |서서히 증량하다|| |augmente|| |yükseltmek|| It depends on the disease. ||||maladie ||||Hastalığa bağlı. Sometimes it will be in patients with the disease, sometimes not. |||||hastalarda||||| But then, usually in Phase II, you do a relatively small number of patients but enough patients so that you have statistical power to see that you're making a difference in the disease. |||||||||||||||||||||통계적||||||||||| |||||||||nispeten||||hastalar|||hastalar|||||istatistiksel güç|||||||||||hastalık And what we then do would be, if their Phase II trial works, to hand the medicine to them, the Global Development Group, to do the final clinical testing. |||||||||Faz||deneme aşaması|||||ilaç|||||||||||klinik testler| And the final clinical testing would then be done in 80 countries around the world. |||klinik|||||||ülkede||| It's a logistical absolute nightmare. ||물류의 악몽||악몽 ||||cauchemar ||lojistik açıdan kabus|kesinlikle| Это абсолютный кошмар с точки зрения логистики. It's done in many, many more patients so that the statistical power increases dramatically. ||||||patients||||||augmente|de manière significative ||||||hastalar üzerinde||||istatistiksel||artar|çarpıcı biçimde Это делается на гораздо большем количестве пациентов, так что статистическая мощность значительно возрастает. And then, work with the regulatory authorities to get permission, if you will-so the FDA, in case of the United States-permission to market the drug. |||||규제 당국||||||||||||||||||||| |||||réglementaires||||||||||||||||||||| ||çalışmak|||düzenleyici|Yetkili makamlar|||izin alma||||||FDA|||||||izin alma|||| |||||規制当局||||||||||||||||||||| А затем - работа с регулирующими органами, чтобы получить разрешение, если хотите - FDA, если речь идет о США, - разрешение на продажу препарата. So my job is to deliver molecules that we say have gone through proof of concept. ||||||분자들||||||||| ||||||molécules||||||||| |||||teslim etmek|molekülleri teslim etmek||bizim|||||||kavram kanıtı ||||||分子||||||||| Así que mi trabajo es entregar moléculas que digamos que han pasado la prueba de concepto. Итак, моя работа состоит в том, чтобы доставлять молекулы, которые, как мы говорим, прошли проверку концепции. We believe that they work. |croyons|que|| We have the chemical entity. ||||화학 물질 |||Kimyasal madde|kimyasal varlık We know that it can be manufactured and to hand this to the Global Group where there's a lot of science involved but there's a huge amount of logistics and regulatory involvement. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||물류 및 규제||| ||||||üretilebileceğini|||||||||||||||dahil olan|||||||lojistik ve düzenlemeler||düzenleyici gereklilikler|katılım And that's when the commercial people get involved and so on. ||||ticari kişiler|||||| Frankly, I'm less interested in that. ||moins|intéressé|| Açıkçası||||| I then go back and try to discover a new medicine and show that it works. ||||||à||||médicament||||| ||||||||||ilaç|||||

From the concept of "maybe this molecule would work in this disease" to actually marketing the drug, well, it depends. ||||||분자||||||||||||| ||kavram||||molekül||||||||pazarlama||||| If it went incredibly fast it could be ten years. |||inanılmaz derecede|||||| It's more like 15 years and the average cost is about $1.5 billion to get it to the market. Now the $1.5 billion includes the failures. |||||başarısızlıklar Теперь в 1,5 миллиарда долларов входят и неудачи. So that's taken into account. ||dikkate alındı|| Так что это учтено. So how many make it? That varies from company to company. |değişir|||| I would say probably on the average 10 percent make it. ||||||moyenne|pourcent|| ||||ortalama olarak||ortalama olarak|yüzde on|| For us, it's probably more like 25 percent. ||||||yüzde 25 But I think the industry is going to do much, much better in the next decade. |||||||||||||||décennie ||||sektör|||||||||||önümüzdeki on yıl And the reason is that there's been an explosion in knowledge about biology. |||||oldu|||patlama||||biyoloji hakkında bilgi What I think was happening in the industry in the '80s and the '90s, there were a bunch of successes. ||||se passait||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||bir sürü||başarılar Drug companies-Merck, Pfizer, Roche-they were making tons of money. ||머크|화이자||||||| ||Merck|||||||| ||Merck|Pfizer|Roche||||tonlarca|| And then, they're saying "But we've got to stay a growth company. |||disent|||||||croissance| |||||"zorundayız"|||||büyüme şirketi| А потом они говорят: «Но мы должны оставаться развивающейся компанией. We need to grow." So they gave a lot of money to the heads of R&D. But frankly, they weren't very good targets. |açıkçası|||||hedefler But what is the head of R&D supposed to do? Say, "I don't know what to do. They aren't very good target. ||||hedef Они не очень хорошая цель. Here, take the money back"? No, of course not. They spent the money on lousy targets. |||||형편없는| |||||mauvais|cibles |||||berbat|hedefler But, during that time, there was a tremendous revolution in the understanding of biology that was taking place which, as I said, is partially why I moved to industry. |||||||tremendous|||||||||||||||||||suis passé|| |||||||büyük çaplı|büyük devrim||o|||biyoloji anlayışı|o dönemde|||||||||kısmen|||||endüstri sektörü Ancak bu süre zarfında biyoloji anlayışında muazzam bir devrim yaşanıyordu ve dediğim gibi, endüstriye geçmemin nedeni kısmen buydu. And I think that now there are incredible targets that we work on. ||||||||objectifs|||| |||||||inanılmaz|hedefler|||| И я думаю, что теперь у нас есть невероятные цели, над которыми мы работаем. Ve bence şu anda üzerinde çalıştığımız inanılmaz hedefler var. Think about cancer. ||Kanseri düşün. Kanseri düşünün. We take the cancer, we take the tumor, we sequence the DNA of the tumor. |||||||tumeur||||||| |||kanser||||tümörün DNA'sını|Biz|dizilemek||||| |||||||腫瘍||||||| Мы берем рак, берем опухоль, секвенируем ДНК опухоли. When we sequence the DNA of the normal tissue, we find out what genes are mutated, what genes are actually causing the cell to be a cancer cell. ||||||||tissu|||||||mutés|||||||||||| ||||||||doku|||||genler||mutasyona uğramış|||||neden olan||||||kanser hücresi| ||配列|||||||||||||変異した|||||||||||| And then, it target those. А затем нацелился на них. Is that going to work? Yes, it's going to work. Да, это сработает. But they are working. You know they work. But that is just terrific sort of pre-clinical validation. |||||||||validation |bu|||Ama bu sadece harika bir tür pre-klinik doğrulamadır.|||öncesi klinik|klinik öncesi|ön doğrulama Но это всего лишь потрясающее доклиническое подтверждение. Those are the kinds of things that you want to work on versus not knowing what to work on. ||||||||||||||savoir|||| ||||||||||||yerine|||||| Это те вещи, над которыми вы хотите работать, а не не знаете, над чем работать. So, it's an expensive and difficult process. |||||difficile| ||||||Süreç Also, the industry is facing a lot of head wins from various countries including our country, on being willing to pay for prescription drugs. ||||||||||||||||||||||처방| ||||faced à||||tête||||||||||||||| |sektör|sektör||karşı karşıya kalmak|||||zorluklar|||||ülkemizin|ülke|||istekli olmak||||reçeteli ilaçlar|reçeteli ilaçlar Además, la industria se está enfrentando a un montón de victorias en la cabeza de varios países, incluido el nuestro, en cuanto a estar dispuestos a pagar por los medicamentos recetados. Кроме того, индустрия сталкивается с тем, что разные страны, в том числе и наша, готовы платить за рецептурные препараты. Some of our drugs are extremely expensive. If we make a drug for a certain cancer on their 10,000 patients per year, it's not unusual to charge around $50,000, $60,000 a year for the drug, which we have to in order to basically re-coup the investment. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||회수|| ||||||||cancer|||patients|||||inhabituel|||environ||||||ce que||||||||||| ||||||||kanser türü|||hastalar|||||||||||||||biz||||||temelde||geri kazanmak|ilacın|yatırım maliyeti ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||回収する|| Если мы производим лекарство от определенного вида рака для их 10 000 пациентов в год, нет ничего необычного в том, чтобы взимать за лекарство от 50 000 до 60 000 долларов в год, что нам необходимо для того, чтобы фактически окупить инвестиции. But, look, if you're going to live longer we think it's delivering value. |Ama bak|||||||||değer sağladığını|değer katmak| Но если вы собираетесь жить дольше, мы считаем, что это приносит пользу. If you're going to take some risks and some big risk, you're going to have a higher chance of failure. |||||||||||||||||||başarısızlık riski Если вы собираетесь рисковать, причем рисковать по-крупному, у вас будет больше шансов потерпеть неудачу. But these risks if they work out, you can have some really big hits. |||||||||||||gains |||||||||||||büyük başarılar Но эти риски, если они сработают, могут привести к действительно большим успехам. So, how do you encourage that type of innovation and risk taking in the organization if people know that, "Boy, if I fail, this is going to be an incredibly expensive failure."? ||||||||yenilikçilik|||||||||||||||||||||son derece||başarısızlık So there must be a lot of tension between that or how do you walk that line - trying to encourage risk-taking and innovation and not wanting to have some big failures. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||vouloir||||| |||||||gerginlik||||||||||||||||yenilikçilik|||||||| Yeah. Ага. Well, we just have to accept that we're going to have big failures. ||||||||||||başarısızlıklar So we have a portfolio balance portfolio approach. ||||portföy|denge|portföy|yaklaşım Поэтому мы используем подход, основанный на балансе портфелей. So, for instance, in the Phase III, portfolio now has 13 new molecular entities. ||par exemple||||||||||entités ||örneğin|||Aşama||portföy||||moleküler|moleküler varlıklar So with that, that's a new compound. ||||||bileşik I say 13 because there are probably 50 clinical studies going on. |||||||études|| Sometimes the molecules are tested in more than one type of cancer, for example, and those are separate studies. ||moleküller|||||||||kanser türü||||||ayrı| So 13 new molecular entities, each one, by that stage, has a commercial value associated with it. |||entités||||||||commercial|||| ||moleküler|moleküler varlıklar|||tarafından||aşama|sahip olur||ticari değer||ilişkili|| Итак, 13 новых молекулярных образований, каждое из которых к этому моменту имеет коммерческую ценность. That's also getting better but those are usually wrong. ||||||||fausses I mean, the drug that we sell a lytic for dissolving blood clot was supposed to be a several billion dollar drug and it sells $200 million a year. ||||||||용해||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||lyse||dissolution||caillot||||||||||||||| ||||||||pıhtı çözücü ilaç||çözülme|kan pıhtısı|kan pıhtısı||||||||||||||| ||||||||溶解剤||||血栓||||||||||||||| Я имею в виду, что препарат, который мы продаем как литик для растворения кровяных сгустков, должен был стать лекарством стоимостью в несколько миллиардов долларов, а продается на 200 миллионов долларов в год. And a drug for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was supposed to be a couple of hundred million a year and last year, it was the largest selling drug in the Roche group and sold $6 billion. |||||Hodgkin|lymphome||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||Hodgkin's lymphoma|||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||Hodgkin olmayan|lenfoma||bekleniyordu||||||||||||||||en çok satan|||||Roche grubu|||| ||||||リンパ腫||||||||||||||||||||||||||| So it's just the opposite of what the commercial prediction's worth. ||||||||commerciale|prévision| ||||tam tersi||||reklam tahmini|tahminin değeri| Así que es justo lo contrario de lo que vale la predicción comercial. Так что это прямо противоположно тому, чего стоит коммерческий прогноз. But that's better now than it was 10 years ago. So we have a commercial value associated with each molecule. donc||||||||| ||||ticari değer||ilişkilendirilmiş|||molekül And then, we have associated with that a probability of technical success, a probability that the molecule will work in Phase III. |||||||||||||probabilité||||||||III ||||ilişkilendirdik||||başarı olasılığı||teknik başarı|teknik başarı||başarı olasılığı|||molekül||||Faz III| And we take that all the way back, even to the portfolio that I managed in Phase I, where we have a probability of technical success of the molecule getting to the market. |||||||||||portföy|||||||||||teknik başarı olasılığı||teknik başarı||||molekülün başarısı|||| Y nos remontamos hasta la cartera que dirigí en la fase I, donde tenemos una probabilidad de éxito técnico de que la molécula llegue al mercado. И мы учитываем это на всех этапах, вплоть до портфеля, которым я управлял на первой фазе, где у нас есть вероятность технического успеха молекулы на рынке. So what's the probability it will make it through Phase I, probability through Phase II, Phase III, through regulatory. |||olasılık||||||Aşama||olasılık||Aşama||Aşama|||düzenleyici onay Obviously, as a molecule moves through the pipeline, the probability goes up as it passes one hurdle, and the next hurdle and the hurdle. ||||||||||||||||obstacle||||||| |olarak||molekül|hareket eder|içinden geçerken|engeli|işlem hattı||olasılık||||o molekül|||engel||||engel||| Evidentemente, a medida que una molécula avanza por la cadena, la probabilidad aumenta al superar un obstáculo, y el siguiente, y el siguiente. So, we have a portfolio with known value for each molecule and the probability of the molecules working. ||||||||||molécule||||||| ||||portföy||||||molekül|||olasılık|||moleküller| And then, we balance the portfolio with more risky projects and projects that we feel are close to a slam dunk, if there ever is such a thing in our business, and manage the portfolio that way. |||||||||||||||||||slam|coup sûr|||jamais||||||||||||| |||denge sağlarız|portföyü||||riskli|||||||||||kesin başarı|kesin başarı|||||||||||||||| ||||||||||と|||||||||確実な成功||||||||||||||||| Y luego, equilibramos la cartera con proyectos más arriesgados y proyectos que creemos que están cerca de ser pan comido, si es que existe algo así en nuestro negocio, y gestionamos la cartera de esa manera. А затем мы балансируем портфель более рискованными проектами и проектами, которые, по нашему мнению, близки к "шальному удару", если таковой вообще возможен в нашем бизнесе, и управляем портфелем таким образом.