Ray Kurzweil – How technology's accelerating power will transform us (2005)
|Курцвейл|||||||
Ray Kurzweil||||ускоряющий|||change|
|Kurzweil|||accelerirajuće||||
|库兹韦尔|||加速||||
|Kurzweil||Technologie|beschleunigende||||
|||tecnología|||||
راي كورزويل - كيف ستساهم القوة المتسارعة للتكنولوجيا في تحويلنا (2005)
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Ray Kurzweil – How technology's accelerating power will transform us (2005)
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Рэй Курцвейл - Как ускоряющаяся мощь технологии преобразит нас (2005)
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Ray Kurzweil – 技术的加速力量将如何改变我们 (2005)
Ray Kurzweil – 科技的加速力量將如何改變我們 (2005)
Well, it’s great to be here.
We’ve heard a lot about the promise of technology, and the peril.
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We have|discussed||||||||||danger
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لقد سمعنا الكثير عن وعود التكنولوجيا والخطر الذي تحمله.
Мы много слышали о обещаниях технологий и об опасностях.
I’ve been quite interested in both.
لقد كنت مهتمًا جدًا بكليهما.
Я был довольно заинтересован в том и в другом.
If we could covert 0.03 percent of the sunlight that falls on the earth into energy, we could meet all of our projected needs for 2030.
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|||تحويل|003 بالمئة|||||||||||||||||المتوقعة||
|||convertir||||||||||||||||||||
إذا تمكنا من تحويل 0.03% من ضوء الشمس الذي يسقط على الأرض إلى طاقة، فسوف نتمكن من تلبية جميع احتياجاتنا المتوقعة بحلول عام 2030.
Wenn wir 0,03 Prozent des auf die Erde fallenden Sonnenlichts in Energie umwandeln könnten, könnten wir unseren gesamten prognostizierten Bedarf für 2030 decken.
Если мы сможем преобразовать 0,03 процента солнечного света, который падает на Землю, в энергию, мы сможем удовлетворить все наши прогнозируемые потребности на 2030 год.
We can’t do that today because solar panels are heavy, expensive and very inefficient.
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|||||||||||||غير فعالة
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|||||||solar panels||||||inefficient
There are nano-engineered designs, which at least have been analyzed theoretically, that show the potential to be very lightweight, very inexpensive, very efficient, and we’d be able to actually provide all of our energy needs in this renewable way.
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||nano||||||||analizzati|in theory||||capability||||low weight||inexpensive||||||||||||||||||
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|||inženjerski|||||||analizirani|teoretski||||potencijal||||||jeftini|||||||||||||||||obnovljive|
||Nano-|nano-engineered||||||||theoretisch||||||||sehr leicht||sehr kostengünstig||||||||||||||||||
|||||||||||نظريًا||||||||خفيف الوزن|||||||||||||||||||متجددة|
existují|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
هناك تصميمات هندسية نانوية، والتي تم تحليلها نظريًا على الأقل، والتي تظهر إمكانية أن تكون خفيفة الوزن للغاية، وغير مكلفة للغاية، وفعالة للغاية، وسوف نكون قادرين على توفير جميع احتياجاتنا من الطاقة بهذه الطريقة المتجددة.
Nano-engineered fuel cells could provide the energy where it’s needed.
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That’s a key trend, which is decentralization, moving from centralized nuclear power plants and liquid natural gas tankers to decentralized resources that are environmentally more friendly, a lot more efficient and capable and safe from disruption.
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||||||decentralized resources|||centralized nuclear power|||facilities||liquid natural gas||natural gas|||distributed||||eco-friendly||||||more effective||able to perform||||interruption or disturbance
|||trend||||||centraliziranih|||||||plin|tankere||||||ekološki||||||||||||prekid
||||||去中心化|||集中式||||||||油轮||||||||||||||||||
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Bono spoke very eloquently, that we have the tools, for the first time, to address age-old problems of disease and poverty.
Bono|||eloquentno||||||||||||||||||
博诺|||||||||||||||||||||
Bono|||eindrucksvoll||||||||||||jahrzehntelang||||Krankheit||Armut
|||articulately||||||||||||||||||
Боно|||||||||||||||||||||
Most regions of the world are moving in that direction.
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In 1990, in East Asia and the Pacific region, there were 500 million people living in poverty -- that number now is under 200 million.
The World Bank projects by 2011, it will be under 20 million, which is a reduction of 95 percent.
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I did enjoy Bono’s comment linking Haight-Ashbury to Silicon Valley.
|||||spajajući|Haight||||Dolina
|||博诺的|||海特|阿什伯里|||
|||Bonos|Kommentar|verbindend|Haight-Ashbury|Haight-Ashbury|||
|||Bono|||Haight|Ashbury|||
Being from the Massachusetts high-tech community myself, I’d point out that we were hippies also in the 1960s, although we hung around Harvard Square.
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But we do have the potential to overcome disease and poverty, and I’m going to talk about those issues, if we have the will.
Но у нас есть потенциал для преодоления болезней и бедности, и я собираюсь поговорить об этих проблемах, если у нас будет воля.
Kevin Kelly talked about the acceleration of technology.
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|Kelly||||Beschleunigung der Technologie||
That’s been a strong interest of mine, and a theme that I’ve developed for some 30 years.
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I realized that my technologies had to make sense when I finished the project.
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That invariably, the world was a different place when I would introduce a technology.
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|неизменно||||||||||||
|immer||||||||||||
|without exception||||||||||||
Это неизменно, мир был другим местом, когда я представлял технологию.
And, I noticed that most inventions fail, not because the R&D department can’t get it to work -- if you look at most business plans, they will actually succeed if given the opportunity to build what they say they’re going to build, and 90 percent of those projects or more will fail, because the timing is wrong -- not all the enabling factors will be in place when they’re needed.
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И я заметил, что большинство изобретений терпят неудачу не потому, что отдел исследований и разработок не может заставить их работать - если вы посмотрите на большинство бизнес-планов, они действительно преуспеют, если им будет предоставлена возможность построить то, что, по их словам, они собираются построить. и 90 процентов этих или более проектов потерпят неудачу, потому что время выбрано неверно - не все стимулирующие факторы будут присутствовать, когда они необходимы.
So I began to be an ardent student of technology trends, and track where technology would be at different points in time, and began build the mathematical models of that.
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It’s kind of taken on a life of its own, I’ve got a group of 10 people that work with me to gather data on key measures of technology in many different areas, and we build models.
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And you’ll hear people say, well, we can’t predict the future.
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And if you ask me, will the price of Google be higher or lower than it is today three years from now, that’s very hard to say.
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Will WiMax CDMA G3 be the wireless standard three years from now?
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That’s hard to say.
But if you ask me, what will it cost for one MIPS of computing in 2010, or the cost to sequence a base pair of DNA in 2012, or the cost of sending a megabyte of data wirelessly in 2014, it turns out that those are very predictable.
|||||||||||MIPS||||||||sekvencirati|||||DNA||||||||megabajt|||bežično|||||||||predvidljivo
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|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||inalámbricamente|||||||||
There are remarkably smooth exponential curves that govern price performance, capacity, bandwidth.
||||eksponencijalne(1)|krivulje||||performanse||propusnost
||замечательно|||||||||
||||exponentiell(1)|||||||
||notably||exponential|||determine||||data transfer rate
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And I’m going to show you a small sample of this, but there’s really a theoretical reason why technology develops in an exponential fashion.
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Ich werde Ihnen ein kleines Beispiel dafür zeigen, aber es gibt wirklich einen theoretischen Grund, warum sich die Technologie exponentiell entwickelt.
And a lot of people, when they think about the future, think about it linearly.
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They think they’re going to continue to develop a problem or address a problem using today’s tools, at today’s pace of progress, and fail to take into consideration this exponential growth.
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Sie glauben, dass sie ein Problem mit den heutigen Mitteln und im heutigen Tempo des Fortschritts weiterentwickeln oder lösen können, und berücksichtigen dabei nicht das exponentielle Wachstum.
The genome project was a controversial project in 1990.
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Das Genom-Projekt war 1990 ein umstrittenes Projekt.
We had our best Ph.D.
||||PhD|
students, our most advanced equipment around the world, around the world, we got 1/10,000th of the project done, so how’re we going to get this done in 15 years?
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Studenten, unsere modernste Ausrüstung auf der ganzen Welt, auf der ganzen Welt, wir haben nur ein Zehntausendstel des Projekts geschafft, wie sollen wir das also in 15 Jahren schaffen?
студенты, наше самое современное оборудование по всему миру, по всему миру, мы выполнили 1/10 000 проекта, так как мы собираемся сделать это за 15 лет?
And 10 years into the project, the skeptics were still going strong -- says, "You’re two-thirds through this project, and you’ve only sequenced a very tiny percentage of the whole genome."
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Und 10 Jahre nach Beginn des Projekts waren die Skeptiker immer noch stark - sie sagten: "Ihr seid zu zwei Dritteln mit diesem Projekt fertig, und ihr habt nur einen winzigen Prozentsatz des gesamten Genoms sequenziert.
En 10 jaar na het begin van het project waren de sceptici nog steeds sterk - zegt: "Je bent voor tweederde door dit project heen en je hebt maar een heel klein percentage van het hele genoom gesequenced."
But it’s the nature of exponential growth that once it reaches the knee of the curve, it explodes.
|||||||||||||||krivulje||eksplodira
|||||||||||||||||爆炸
|||||||||||||||||explodiert
Aber es liegt in der Natur des exponentiellen Wachstums, dass es explodiert, sobald es das Knie der Kurve erreicht.
Most of the project was done in the last few years of the project.
It took us 15 years to sequence HIV -- we sequenced SARS in 31 days.
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استغرق الأمر منا 15 عامًا لتسلسل فيروس نقص المناعة البشرية - بينما تمكنا من تسلسل فيروس السارس في 31 يومًا.
Нам потребовалось 15 лет, чтобы установить последовательность ВИЧ - мы заразили SARS за 31 день.
So we are gaining the potential to overcome these problems.
Таким образом, мы приобретаем потенциал для преодоления этих проблем.
I’m going to show you just a few examples of how pervasive this phenomena is.
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Ich werde Ihnen nur einige Beispiele dafür geben, wie weit verbreitet dieses Phänomen ist.
The actual paradigm-shift rate, the rate of adopting new ideas, is doubling every decade, according to our models.
|stvarni||pomak|||||||||dvostruko||deceniju||||
||||||||Übernahme von||||verdoppelt sich||||||
||||||||||||increasing rapidly||||||
Unseren Modellen zufolge verdoppelt sich die Rate des Paradigmenwechsels, d. h. die Geschwindigkeit, mit der neue Ideen angenommen werden, jedes Jahrzehnt.
Согласно нашим моделям, фактическая скорость смены парадигмы, скорость принятия новых идей удваивается каждое десятилетие.
These are all logarithmic graphs, so as you go up the levels it represents, generally multiplying by factor of 10 or 100.
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|||logarítmicas||||||||||||||||
Это все логарифмические графики, поэтому, когда вы поднимаетесь на уровни, которые они представляют, они обычно умножаются на коэффициент 10 или 100.
It took us half a century to adopt the telephone, the first virtual reality technology.
Es hat ein halbes Jahrhundert gedauert, bis wir das Telefon, die erste Technologie der virtuellen Realität, eingeführt haben.
Cell phones were adopted in about eight years.
Handys wurden in etwa acht Jahren eingeführt.
If you put different communication technologies on this logarithmic graph, television, radio, telephone were adopted in decades.
Recent technologies -- like the PC, the web, cell phones -- were under a decade.
||||个人电脑||||||||
Neuere Technologien - wie der PC, das Internet, Mobiltelefone - waren weniger als ein Jahrzehnt alt.
Now this is an interesting chart, and this really gets at the fundamental reason why an evolutionary process -- and both biology and technology are evolutionary processes -- accelerate.
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They work through interaction -- they create a capability, and then it uses that capability to bring on the next stage.
||by means of|||||ability||||||ability||||||
Они работают через взаимодействие - они создают возможность, а затем она использует эту возможность для перехода на следующую стадию.
So the first step in biological evolution, the evolution of DNA -- actually it was RNA came first -- took billions of years, but then evolution used that information-processing backbone to bring on the next stage.
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Der erste Schritt in der biologischen Evolution, die Entwicklung der DNA - eigentlich war es die RNA, die zuerst kam - dauerte also Milliarden von Jahren, aber dann nutzte die Evolution dieses informationsverarbeitende Rückgrat, um die nächste Stufe einzuleiten.
Таким образом, первый шаг в биологической эволюции, эволюция ДНК - на самом деле это была РНК, пришел первым - занял миллиарды лет, но затем эволюция использовала эту основу обработки информации, чтобы перейти на следующую стадию.
So the Cambrian Explosion, when all the body plans of the animals were evolved, took only 10 million years.
||寒武纪|||||||||||||||
||Kambrium|||||||||||||||
Die Kambrische Explosion, bei der sich alle Körperformen der Tiere entwickelten, dauerte also nur 10 Millionen Jahre.
It was 200 times faster.
And then evolution used those body plans to evolve higher cognitive functions, and biological evolution kept accelerating.
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Und dann nutzte die Evolution diese Körperpläne, um höhere kognitive Funktionen zu entwickeln, und die biologische Evolution beschleunigte sich weiter.
It’s an inherent nature of an evolutionary process.
||inhärente|||||
||essential|||||
So Homo sapiens, the first technology creating species, the species that combined a cognitive function with an opposable appendage -- and by the way, chimpanzees don’t really have a very good opposable thumb -- so we could actually manipulate our environment with a power grip and fine motor coordination, and use our mental models to actually change the world and bring on technology.
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|Homo sapiens|der Mensch|||||||||||||||||||||Schimpansen|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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But anyway, the evolution of our species took hundreds of thousands of years, and then working through interaction, evolution used, essentially, the technology creating species to bring on the next stage, which were the first steps in technological evolution.
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And the first step took tens of thousands of years -- stone tools, fire, the wheel -- kept accelerating.
We always used then the latest generation of technology to create the next generation.
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Printing press took a century to be adopted, the first computers were designed pen-on-paper -- now we use computers.
And we’ve had a continual acceleration of this process.
||||constant||||
Now by the way, if you look at this on a linear graph, it looks like everything has just happened, but some observer says, "Well, Kurzweil just put points on this graph that flow on that straight line."
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Кстати, если вы посмотрите на это на линейном графике, похоже, что все только что произошло, но некоторые наблюдатели говорят: «Ну, Курцвейл просто поставил точки на этом графике, которые текут по этой прямой линии».
So, it took 15 different lists from key thinkers, like the Encyclopedia Britannica, the Museum of Natural History, Carl Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar on the same -- and these people were not trying to make my point, these were just lists in reference works.
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Таким образом, он взял 15 разных списков от ключевых мыслителей, таких как Британская энциклопедия, Музей естественной истории, Космический календарь Карла Сагана - и эти люди не пытались высказать мою точку зрения, это были просто списки в справочных работах.
And I think that’s what they thought the key events were in biological evolution and technological evolution.
And again, it forms the same straight line.
You have a little bit of thickening in the line because people do have disagreements, what the key points are, there’s differences of opinion when agriculture started, or when -- how long the Cambrian Explosion took.
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But you see a very clear trend.
There’s a basic, profound acceleration of this evolutionary process.
|||deep|||||
Information technologies double their capacity, price performance, bandwidth, every year.
And that’s a very profound explosion of exponential growth.
A personal experience, when I was at MIT -- computer taking up about the size of this room, less powerful than the computer in your cell phone.
Личный опыт, когда я был в Массачусетском технологическом институте - компьютер размером с эту комнату, менее мощный, чем компьютер в вашем мобильном телефоне.
But Moore’s Law, which is very often identified with this exponential growth, is just one example of many, because it’s basically a property of the evolutionary process of technology.
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Но закон Мура, который очень часто отождествляется с этим экспоненциальным ростом, является лишь одним из многих примеров, потому что это в основном свойство эволюционного технологического процесса.
If we -- I put 49 famous computers on this logarithmic graph -- by the way, a straight line on a logarithmic graph, it’s exponential growth -- that’s another exponential.
It took us three years to double our price performance of computing in 1900, two years in the middle, we’re now doubling it every one year.
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||||||||||||||||||||verdoppeln||||
Нам потребовалось три года, чтобы удвоить нашу производительность вычислений в 1900 году, два года в середине, теперь мы удваиваем их каждый год.
And that’s exponential growth through five different paradigms.
|||||||paradigmas
Moore’s Law was just the last part of that, on an integrated circuit, where we were shrinking transistors, but we had electro-mechanical calculators, relay-based computers that cracked the German Enigma Code, vacuum tubes in the 1950s predicted the election of Eisenhower, discreet transistors used in the first space flights and then Moore’s Law.
|||||||||||||||||晶体管||||电||计算器||||||||密码机|||||||||||艾森豪威尔||||||||||||
||||||||||||||||verkleinern|||||||elektromechanische Rechner|Relaiscomputer|||||||Enigma(1)|||Vakuumröhren|||||||||diskrete|||||||||||
|||||||||||integrated|integrated circuit||||reducing in size|transistors|||||||relay||||decoded|||code||||||||||||separate|||||||||||
|||||||||||||||||transistores||||electro|||relés|||||||Enigma|||||||||||||||||||||||
Закон Мура был только последней частью этого, на интегральной схеме, где мы сжимали транзисторы, но у нас были электромеханические калькуляторы, релейные компьютеры, которые взламывали немецкий код Enigma, а вакуумные лампы в 1950-х предсказывали выборы Эйзенхауэра. Дискретные транзисторы использовались в первых космических полетах, а затем в законе Мура.
Every time one paradigm ran out of steam, another paradigm came out of left field to continue the exponential growth.
Каждый раз, когда одна парадигма выходила из строя, другая парадигма выходила из левого поля, чтобы продолжить экспоненциальный рост.
They were shrinking vacuum tubes, making them smaller and smaller.
That hit a wall.
They couldn’t shrink them and keep the vacuum.
Whole different paradigm -- transistors came out of the woodwork.
||||||||aus dem Nichts
Совершенно другая парадигма - транзисторы вышли из дерева.
In fact, when we see the end of the line for a particular paradigm, it creates research pressure to create the next paradigm.
Фактически, когда мы видим конец линии для конкретной парадигмы, это создает исследовательское давление для создания следующей парадигмы.
And because we’ve been predicting the end of Moore’s Law for quite a long time -- the first prediction said 2002, until now it says 2022.
But by the teen years, the features of transistors will be a few atoms in width, and we won’t be able to shrink them any more.
|||||||||||||||Breite||||||||||
Но к подростковым годам характеристики транзисторов составят несколько атомов в ширину, и мы больше не сможем их уменьшить.
That’ll be the end of Moore’s Law, but it won’t be the end of the exponential growth of computing, because chips are flat.
Это будет конец закона Мура, но это не будет концом экспоненциального роста вычислительной техники, потому что чипы плоские.
We live in a three-dimensional world, we might as well use the third dimension.
|||||dimensional|||||||||
We will go into the third dimension and it’s been tremendous progress, just in the last few years, of getting three-dimensional, self-organizing molecular circuits to work.
||||||||||progrès énorme|||||||||||||||||
||||||||||significant|||||||||||||||||
Мы войдем в третье измерение, и за последние несколько лет был достигнут огромный прогресс в том, чтобы заставить работать трехмерные, самоорганизующиеся молекулярные цепи.
We’ll have those ready well before Moore’s Law runs out of steam.
Wir werden sie fertig haben, lange bevor das Mooresche Gesetz außer Kraft tritt.
Supercomputers -- same thing.
超级计算机||
Supercomputer||
supercomputadoras||
Processor performance on Intel chips, the average price of a transistor -- 1968, you could buy one transistor for a dollar.
||||||||||晶体管||||||||
|||Intel||||||||||||Transistor(2)|||
Производительность процессора на чипах Intel, средняя цена одного транзистора - 1968 год, можно было купить один транзистор за доллар.
You could buy 10 million in 2002.
Вы можете купить 10 миллионов в 2002 году.
It’s pretty remarkable how smooth an exponential process that is.
||bemerkenswert|||||||
Довольно удивительно, насколько плавным является экспоненциальный процесс.
I mean, you’d think this is the result of some tabletop experiment, but this is the result of worldwide chaotic behavior -- countries accusing each other of dumping products, IPOs, bankruptcies, marketing programs.
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||首次公开募股|破产||
||||||||||Tischexperiment|||||||||chaotischem|Verhalten||einander beschuldigen||||||Börsengänge|||
||||||||||||||||||||||||||dumping|||business failures||
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||ofertas públicas iniciales|quiebras||
Я имею в виду, вы могли бы подумать, что это результат какого-то настольного эксперимента, но это результат хаотичного поведения во всем мире - страны обвиняют друг друга в демпинге продуктов, IPO, банкротствах, маркетинговых программах.
You would think it would be a very erratic process, and you have a very smooth outcome of this chaotic process.
||||||||不稳定||||||||||||
||||||||unberechenbar||||||||||||
||||||||unpredictable|||||||||||disordered|
Just as we can’t predict what one molecule in a gas will do -- it’s hopeless to predict a single molecule -- yet we can predict the properties of the whole gas, using thermodynamics, very accurately.
||||||||||||||||||||||||die|||||||Thermodynamik||
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||heat dynamics||
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||termodinámica||
It’s the same thing here.
We can’t predict any particular project, but the result of this whole wide -- worldwide chaotic, unpredictable activity of competition.
||vorhersagen||bestimmten|||||||||||unvorhersehbar|||
Wir können kein bestimmtes Projekt vorhersagen, aber das Ergebnis dieser ganzen weltweiten chaotischen, unvorhersehbaren Wettbewerbsaktivität.
And the evolutionary process of technology is very predictable.
And we can predict these trends far into the future.
Unlike Gertrude Stein’s roses, it’s not the case that a transistor is a transistor.
||斯坦因|||||||||||
||Gertrude Stein|||||||||||
||de Stein|||||||||||
Im Gegensatz zu Gertrude Steins Rosen ist ein Transistor nicht gleich ein Transistor.
As we make them smaller and less expensive, the electrons have less distance to travel.
They’re faster, so you’ve got exponential growth in the speed of transistors, so the cost of a cycle of one transistor has been coming down with a halving rate of 1.1 years.
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||减半|||
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||Halbierungsrate|||
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||reduction rate|||
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||reducción|||
You add other forms of innovation and processor design, you get a doubling of price performance of computing every one year.
And that’s basically deflation -- 50 percent deflation.
|||通货紧缩||
|||Deflation||Deflation (2)
|||deflation rate||
En dat is in feite deflatie - 50 procent deflatie.
And it’s not just computers.
I mean, it’s true of DNA sequencing, it’s true of brain scanning, it’s true of the World Wide Web.
|||||||||||扫描|||||||
I mean, anything that we can quantify, we have hundreds of different measurements of different, information-related measurements -- capacity, adoption rates -- and they basically double every 12, 13, 15 months, depending on what you’re looking at.
||||||quantifizieren|||||||||||Messungen|||||||||||||||
||||||measure||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Я имею в виду, что все, что мы можем измерить, у нас есть сотни различных измерений различных связанных с информацией измерений - емкости, коэффициентов принятия - и они в основном удваиваются каждые 12, 13, 15 месяцев, в зависимости от того, на что вы смотрите ,
In terms of price performance, that’s a 50 -- 40 to 50 percent deflation rate.
And economists have actually started worrying about that.
We had deflation during the Depression, but that was collapse of the money supply, collapse of consumer confidence, a completely different phenomena.
||Deflation|||||||Zusammenbruch||||||||||||
|||||||||first||||||||||||
This is due to greater productivity, but the economist says, "But there’s no way you’re going to be able to keep up with that.
||||||||Ökonom|||||||||||||||
Dies ist auf die höhere Produktivität zurückzuführen, aber der Wirtschaftswissenschaftler sagt: "Damit werden Sie nicht Schritt halten können.
If you have 50 percent deflation, people may increase their volume 30, 40 percent, but they won’t keep up with it.
But what we actually see is that is that we actually more than keep up with it.
Aber was wir tatsächlich sehen, ist, dass wir mehr als nur mithalten können.
We’ve had 28 percent per year compounded growth in dollars in information technology over the last 50 years.
|||||复合||||||||||
|||||jährlich verzinst||||||||||
|||||annualized||||||||||
I mean, people didn’t build iPods for 10,000 dollars 10 years ago.
As the price performance makes new applications feasible, new applications come to the market.
And this is a very widespread phenomena.
||||||Phänomen
Magnetic data storage -- that’s not Moore’s Law, it’s shrinking magnetic spots, different engineers, different companies, same exponential process.
A key revolution is that we’re understanding our own biology in these information terms.
We’re understanding the software programs that make our body run.
These were evolved in very different times -- we’d like to actually change those programs.
|||||unterschiedlichen||||||||
One little software program, called the fat insulin receptor gene, basically says, hold onto every calorie, because the next hunting season may not work out so well.
|||||||||||||||卡路里|||||||||||
|||||||||||||||Kalorie|||||||||||
That was in the interests of the species tens of thousands of years ago.
We’d like to actually turn that program off.
Wir würden dieses Programm gerne abschalten.
They tried that in animals, and these mice ate ravenously and remained slim and got the health benefits of being slim.
|||||||Mäuse||gierig|||||||||||
|||||||||with great hunger|||||||||||
|||||||||vorazmente|||||||||||
They didn’t get diabetes, they didn’t get heart disease, they lived 20 percent longer, they got the health benefits of caloric restriction without the restriction.
|||||||||||||||||||卡路里||||
|||||||||||||||||||kalorischer||||
|||||||||||||||||||calórica||||
Four or five pharmaceutical companies have noticed this, felt that would be interesting drug for the human market, and that’s just one of the 30,000 genes that affect our biochemistry.
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||生物化学
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Biochemie
We were evolved in an era where it wasn’t in the interests of people at the age of most people at this conference, like myself, to live much longer, because we were using up the precious resources which were better deployed towards the children and those caring for them.
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||wertvollen|||||||||||die Pflege von||
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||allocated||||||||
So, life -- long lifespans -- like, that is to say, much more than 30 -- weren’t selected for, but we are learning to actually manipulate and change these software programs through the biotechnology revolution.
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||生物技术|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Biotechnologie|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||biotecnología|
For example, we can inhibit genes now with RNA interference.
||||hemmen|||||Interferenz
There are exciting new forms of gene therapy that overcome the problem of placing the genetic material in the right place on the chromosome.
||aufregende|||||||||||||||||||||Chromosom(1)
|||||||||||||||||||||||cromosoma
There’s actually a -- for the first time now, something going to human trials, that actually cures pulmonary hypertension -- a fatal disease -- using gene therapy.
||||||||||||||||肺动脉|高血压||||||
||||||||||||Versuche|||heilt|pulmonale|Lungenhochdruck||||||
Er is eigenlijk een - voor de eerste keer nu, iets dat naar menselijke proeven gaat, dat in feite pulmonale hypertensie geneest - een dodelijke ziekte - met behulp van gentherapie.
So we’ll have not just designer babies, but designer baby boomers.
||||||||||婴儿潮一代
||||||||||Baby-Boomer
And this technology is also accelerating.
It cost 10 dollars per base pair in 1990, then a penny in 2000.
||||Basis|||||ein Cent|
It’s now under a 10th of a cent.
The amount of genetic data -- basically this is -- this shows that smooth exponential growth doubled every year, enabling the genome project to be completed.
Another major revolution, the communications revolution.
The price performance, bandwidth, capacity of communications measured many different ways; wired, wireless is growing exponentially.
|||||||||||||||指数地
|||||||||||||||exponentiell
|||||||||||||||at an increasing rate
The Internet has been doubling in power and continues to, measured many different ways.
This is based on the number of hosts.
Miniaturization -- we’re shrinking the size of technology at an exponential rate, both wired and wireless.
微型化||||||||||||||
Miniaturisierung||||||||||||||
Miniaturization||||||||||||||
miniaturización||||||||||||||
миниатюризация||||||||||||||
These are some designs from Eric Drexler’s book -- which we’re now showing are feasible with super-computing simulations, where actually there are scientists building molecule-scale robots.
||||||德雷克斯勒||||||||||||||||||||
||||||Drexlers||||||||||||||||||||
||||||Drexler||||||||||||||||||||
One has one that actually walks with a surprisingly human-like gait, that’s built out of molecules.
|||||||||||marcha|||||
Es gibt einen, der tatsächlich mit einem erstaunlich menschenähnlichen Gang läuft, der aus Molekülen gebaut ist.
There are little machines doing things in experimental bases.
||||||||Betrieben
The most exciting opportunity is actually to go inside the human body and perform therapeutic and diagnostic functions.
||||||||||||||therapeutische|||
And this is less futuristic than it may sound.
||||未来的||||
||||futuristisch||||
||||advanced||||
These things have already been done in animals.
There’s one nano-engineered device that cures type 1 diabetes.
It’s blood-cell sized.
They put tens of thousands of these in the blood cell -- they tried this in rats -- it lets insulin out in a controlled fashion, and actually cures type 1 diabetes.
Wenn man Zehntausende davon in die Blutzellen einbringt - man hat das an Ratten ausprobiert -, wird das Insulin kontrolliert ausgeschüttet und heilt tatsächlich Typ-1-Diabetes.
What you’re watching is a design of a robotic red blood cell, and it does bring up the issue that our biology is actually very sub-optimal, even though it’s remarkable in its intricacy.
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||复杂性
||||||||||||||||||||||||||suboptimal|||||||Komplexität
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||complexity
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||complejidad
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||сложности
Once we understand its principles of operation, and the pace with which we are reverse-engineering biology is accelerating, we can actually design these things to be thousands of times more capable.
An analysis of this respirocyte, designed by Rob Freitas, indicates if you replace 10 percent of your red blood cells with these robotic versions, you could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath.
||||呼吸细胞||||弗雷塔斯||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||||||||Rob Freitas||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||||respirocyte||||Freitas||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Eine Analyse dieses von Rob Freitas entworfenen Respirozyten zeigt, dass man, wenn man 10 Prozent seiner roten Blutkörperchen durch diese Roboterversionen ersetzt, 15 Minuten lang einen olympischen Sprint absolvieren könnte, ohne Luft zu holen.
Een analyse van deze respirocyt, ontworpen door Rob Freitas, geeft aan dat als je 10 procent van je rode bloedcellen vervangt door deze robotversies, je een Olympische sprint van 15 minuten kunt doen zonder adem te halen.
You could sit at the bottom of your pool for four hours -- -- so, "Honey, I’m in the pool," will take on a whole new meaning.
It will be interesting to see what we do in our Olympic trials.
Presumably we’ll ban them, but then we’ll have the specter of teenagers in their high schools gyms routinely out-performing the Olympic athletes.
|||||||||幽灵|||||||体育馆||||||
||||||||||||||||||||||Olympioniken
likely|||||||||ghost|||||||||||||
|||||||||espectro|||||||gimnasios||||||
||||||||||||||||спортзалах||||||
Vermutlich werden wir sie verbieten, aber dann haben wir das Schreckgespenst von Teenagern in den Turnhallen ihrer High Schools, die regelmäßig die olympischen Athleten übertreffen.
Freitas has a design for a robotic white blood cell.
These are 2020-circa scenarios, but they’re not as futuristic as it may sound.
||around||||||||||
Dies sind Szenarien aus der Zeit um 2020, aber sie sind nicht so futuristisch, wie es vielleicht klingt.
There are four major conferences on building blood-cell sized devices, there are many experiments in animals.
Es gibt vier große Konferenzen über den Bau von Geräten in der Größe von Blutzellen, und es gibt viele Versuche an Tieren.
There’s actually one going into human trial, so this is feasible technology.
Es gibt sogar ein Gerät, das am Menschen erprobt wird, es handelt sich also um eine machbare Technologie.
If we come back to our exponential growth of computing, 1,000 dollars of computing is now somewhere between an insect and a mouse brain.
It will intersect human intelligence in terms of capacity in the 2020s, but that’ll be the hardware side of the equation.
||kreuzen||||||||||||||||||
In den 2020er Jahren wird sie die menschliche Intelligenz in Bezug auf die Kapazität überschneiden, aber das wird die Hardware-Seite der Gleichung sein.
Where will we get the software?
Well, it turns out we can see inside the human brain, and in fact not surprisingly, the spatial and temporal resolution of brain scanning is doubling every year.
|||||können||||||||||nicht überraschend||räumliche||||||||||
|||||||||||||||||spatial resolution||time||||||||
Nun, es hat sich herausgestellt, dass wir in das menschliche Gehirn hineinsehen können, und es überrascht nicht, dass sich die räumliche und zeitliche Auflösung von Gehirnscans jedes Jahr verdoppelt.
And with the new generation of scanning tools, for the first time we can actually see individual inter-neural fibers and see them processing and signaling in real time and -- but then the question is, OK, we can get this data now, but can we understand it?
|||||||||||||||||||Fasern||||||signalisieren|||||||||||||||||||||
Doug Hofstadter wonders, well, maybe our intelligence just isn’t great enough to understand our intelligence, and if we were smarter, well, then our brains would be that much more complicated, and we’d never catch up to it.
|霍夫斯塔特|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Doug Hofstadter|Hofstadter|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|Hofstadter|se pregunta||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Doug Hofstadter fragt sich, ob unsere Intelligenz vielleicht einfach nicht groß genug ist, um unsere Intelligenz zu verstehen, und wenn wir schlauer wären, dann wären unsere Gehirne noch viel komplizierter, und wir würden sie nie einholen.
It turns out that we can understand it.
This is a block diagram of a model and simulation of the human auditory cortex that actually works quite well -- in applying psychoacoustic tests, gets very similar results to human auditory perception.
||||图||||||||||||||||||心理声学|||||||||
||||||||||||||Hirnrinde|||||||||||||||||
||||||||||||||||||||||sound perception|||||||||
||||||||||||||||||||||psicoacústica|||||||||
Dies ist ein Blockdiagramm eines Modells und einer Simulation des menschlichen auditorischen Kortex, das tatsächlich recht gut funktioniert - bei der Anwendung psychoakustischer Tests werden sehr ähnliche Ergebnisse wie bei der menschlichen auditorischen Wahrnehmung erzielt.
There’s another simulation of the cerebellum -- that’s more than half the neurons in the brain -- again, works very similarly to human skill formation.
|||||小脑|||||||||||||||||
|||||Kleinhirn|||||||||||||||||
|||||cerebelo|||||||||||||||||
|||||мозжечок|||||||||||||||||
Es gibt eine weitere Simulation des Kleinhirns - das sind mehr als die Hälfte der Neuronen im Gehirn -, die ebenfalls sehr ähnlich wie die Ausbildung menschlicher Fähigkeiten funktioniert.
This is at an early stage, but you can show with the exponential growth of the amount of information about the brain and the exponential improvement in the resolution of brain scanning, we will succeed in reverse-engineering the human brain by the 2020s.
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||erfolgen|||||||||
Wir befinden uns noch in einem frühen Stadium, aber mit dem exponentiellen Wachstum der Informationsmenge über das Gehirn und der exponentiellen Verbesserung der Auflösung beim Scannen des Gehirns werden wir in den 2020er Jahren in der Lage sein, das menschliche Gehirn zurückzuentwickeln.
We’ve already had very good models and simulation of about 15 regions out of the several hundred.
All of this is driving exponential -- exponentially-growing economic progress.
We’ve had productivity go from 30 dollars to 150 dollars per hour of labor in the last 50 years.
In den letzten 50 Jahren ist die Produktivität von 30 Dollar auf 150 Dollar pro Arbeitsstunde gestiegen.
E-commerce has been growing exponentially.
It’s now a trillion dollars.
You might wonder, well, wasn’t there a boom and a bust?
|||||da|||||Rückgang
||||||||||quiebre
That was strictly a capital markets phenomena.
||||||Phänomen
Wall Street noticed that this was a revolutionary technology, which it was, but then six months later, when it hadn’t revolutionized all business models, they figured, well, that was wrong, and then we had this bust.
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||мы|||бюст
||||||||||||||||||||revolutioniert|||||||||||||||
Die Wall Street bemerkte, dass es sich um eine revolutionäre Technologie handelte, was auch der Fall war, aber sechs Monate später, als sie noch nicht alle Geschäftsmodelle revolutioniert hatte, stellte man fest, dass das falsch war, und so kam es zu dieser Pleite.
All right, this is a technology that we put together using some of the technologies we’re involved in.
||||||||||||||||participating in|
Das ist eine Technologie, die wir unter Verwendung einiger der Technologien, an denen wir beteiligt sind, entwickelt haben.
This will be a routine feature in a cell phone.
Dies wird eine Routinefunktion in einem Mobiltelefon sein.
It would be able to translate from one language to another.
So let me just end with a couple of scenarios.
Lassen Sie mich also mit einigen Szenarien schließen.
By 2010 computers will disappear.
Bis 2010 werden Computer verschwinden.
They’ll be so small, they’ll be embedded in our clothing, in our environment.
Images will be written directly to our retina, providing full-immersion virtual reality, augmented real reality.
|||||||Netzhaut||||||erweiterte Realität||
Die Bilder werden direkt auf unsere Netzhaut geschrieben, was eine vollständige virtuelle Realität und eine erweiterte reale Realität ermöglicht.
We’ll be interacting with virtual personalities.
But if we go to 2029, we really have the full maturity of these trends, and you have to appreciate how many turns of the screw in terms of generations of technology which are getting faster and faster we’ll have at that point.
||||||||||Reife|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||||||||||||||||||||||||adjustments|||||||||||||||||
I mean, we will have two to the 25th power greater price performance, capacity and bandwidth of these technologies, which is pretty phenomenal.
||||||||||||||||||||||remarkable
Ich meine, wir werden zwei bis 25 Potenzen mehr an Preisleistung, Kapazität und Bandbreite dieser Technologien haben, was ziemlich phänomenal ist.
It’ll be millions of times more powerful than it is today.
We’ll have completed the reverse-engineering of the human brain, compute -- 1,000 dollars of computing will be far more powerful than the human brain in terms of basic raw capacity.
||||||||||berechne(1)||||||||||||||||||
||||||||||calculate||||||||||||||||||
Computers will combine the subtle pan-recognition powers of human intelligence with ways in which machines are already superior, in terms of doing analytic thinking, remembering billions of facts accurately.
|||||||||||||||||||||||分析||||||
||||feinen|||||||||||||||||||analytisches Denken||||||
|||||||||||||||||||||||analítico||||||
Machines can share their knowledge very quickly, but it’s not just a alien invasion of intelligent machines.
Maschinen können ihr Wissen sehr schnell weitergeben, aber es handelt sich nicht nur um eine außerirdische Invasion intelligenter Maschinen.
We are going to merge with our technology.
These nano-bots I mentioned will first be used for medical and health applications: cleaning up the environment, providing fuel -- powerful fuel cells and widely distributed decentralized solar panels and so on in the environment.
||机器人||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
||Nano-Bots||erwähnten||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diese Nanobots, die ich erwähnt habe, werden zunächst für medizinische und gesundheitliche Anwendungen eingesetzt: Reinigung der Umwelt, Bereitstellung von Treibstoff - leistungsstarke Brennstoffzellen und weit verbreitete dezentrale Solarzellen und so weiter in der Umwelt.
But they’ll also go inside our brain, interact with our biological neurons.
Aber sie werden auch in unser Gehirn eindringen und mit unseren biologischen Neuronen interagieren.
We’ve demonstrated the key principles of being able to do this.
So, for example, full-immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system, the nano-bots shut down the signals coming from your real senses, replace them with the signals that your brain would be receiving if you were in the virtual environment, And then it’ll feel like you’re in that virtual environment.
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You can go there with other people, have any kind of experience with anyone involving all of the senses.
"Experience beamers," I call them, will put their whole flow of sensory experiences in the neurological correlates of their emotions out on the Internet.
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|beamers||||||||||||||||||||||
Ich nenne sie "Experience-Beamer", die ihren gesamten Fluss an sensorischen Erfahrungen in den neurologischen Korrelaten ihrer Emotionen ins Internet stellen.
'Experience beamers', noem ik ze, zullen hun hele stroom van zintuiglijke ervaringen in de neurologische correlaten van hun emoties op internet zetten.
You can plug in and experience what it’s like to be someone else.
But most importantly, it’ll be a tremendous expansion of human intelligence through this direct merger with our technology, which in some sense we’re doing already.
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We routinely do intellectual feats that would be impossible without our technology.
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We doen routinematig intellectuele prestaties die onmogelijk zouden zijn zonder onze technologie.
Human life expectancy is expanding.
It was 37 in 1800, and with this sort of biotechnology, nano-technology revolutions, this will move up very rapidly in the years ahead.
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My main message is that progress in technology is exponential, not linear.
Many -- even scientists -- assume a linear model, so they’ll say, "Oh, it’ll be hundreds of years before we have self-replicating nano-technology assembly or artificial intelligence."
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If you really look at the power of exponential growth, you’ll see that these things are pretty soon at hand.
Wenn Sie sich die Kraft des exponentiellen Wachstums vor Augen führen, werden Sie feststellen, dass diese Dinge schon bald in greifbare Nähe rücken werden.
And information technology is increasingly encompassing all of our lives, from our music to our manufacturing to our biology to our energy to materials.
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We’ll be able to manufacture almost anything we need in the 2020s, from information, in very inexpensive raw materials, using nano-technology.
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In den 2020er Jahren werden wir in der Lage sein, fast alles, was wir brauchen, aus Informationen, aus sehr preiswerten Rohstoffen und mit Hilfe der Nanotechnologie herzustellen.
These are very powerful technologies.
They both empower our promise and our peril.
|||||||peligro
Sie stärken sowohl unser Versprechen als auch unsere Gefahr.
So we have to have the will to apply them to the right problems.
Wir müssen also den Willen haben, sie auf die richtigen Probleme anzuwenden.
Thank you very much
(Applause)
http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us.html
