Robert Wright: The logic of non-zero-sum progress Robert Wright: Die Logik des Nicht-Nullsummen-Fortschritts Robert Wright: Wright: Η λογική της προόδου μη μηδενικού αθροίσματος Robert Wright: La lógica del progreso de suma no nula Robert Wright : La logique du progrès à somme non nulle Robert Wright: La logica del progresso a somma zero ロバート・ライトゼロサムでない進歩の論理 Robert Wright: A lógica do progresso de soma diferente de zero Роберт Райт: Логика прогресса без нулевой суммы Robert Wright: Sıfır toplamlı olmayan ilerlemenin mantığı Роберт Райт: Логіка прогресу з ненульовою сумою 罗伯特赖特：非零和进步的逻辑

I've got apparently 18 minutes to convince you that history has a direction, an arrow; that in some fundamental sense, it's good; that the arrow points to something positive. Eu tenho aparentemente 18 minutos para convencê-lo de que a história tem uma direção, uma flecha; que em algum sentido fundamental, é bom; que a seta aponta para algo positivo. Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk -- (Laughter) -- that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting. Agora, quando o pessoal do TED me abordou pela primeira vez sobre dar essa palestra otimista -- (Risos) -- isso foi antes da caricatura de Maomé ter desencadeado tumultos globais. It was before the avian flu had reached Europe. Foi antes que a gripe aviária chegasse à Europa. It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election, eliciting various counter-measures by Israel. |||||||||prompting||||| Foi antes de o Hamas vencer a eleição palestina, provocando várias contra-medidas de Israel. And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk that even as I was giving the upbeat talk, the apocalypse would be unfolding -- (Laughter) -- I might have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else?" E para ser honesto, se eu soubesse quando me pediram para dar essa palestra otimista que, mesmo enquanto eu estava dando a palestra otimista, o apocalipse estaria se desenrolando -- (Risos) -- eu poderia ter dito: "Tudo bem se Eu falo sobre outra coisa?" But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can. I've got to warn you: the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle, sometimes even elusive. Должен вас предупредить: смысл моего мировоззрения всегда был довольно тонким, иногда даже неуловимым. (Laughter) The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring -- I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain grim dimension to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration -- (Laughter) -- if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I'm afraid, the most you can hope for. (Risos) O sentido em que posso ser edificante e inspirador -- quero dizer, sempre houve uma certa dimensão sombria na maneira como tento elevar, então se inspiração sombria -- (Risos) -- se inspiração sombria não é uma contradição em termos, ou seja, receio, o máximo que você pode esperar. (Смех) В том смысле, что я могу поднимать настроение и вдохновлять... Я имею в виду, что в том, как я пытаюсь поднимать настроение, всегда присутствует некое мрачное измерение, так что если мрачное вдохновение... (Смех)... если мрачное вдохновение не является противоречием в терминах, то это, боюсь, самое большее, на что вы можете надеяться. OK, today -- that's if I succeed. I'll see what I can do. OK?

Now, in one sense, the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial. If you're just talking about social structure, OK, clearly that's gotten more complex a little over the last 10,000 years -- has reached higher and higher levels. And in fact, that's actually sustaining a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK, that biological evolution was doing for us. |||||||||||came before|||||||||| Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell, then cells start hanging out together in societies. ||||||||surrounds|||||||||||| Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms, then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies. |||||||made of many cells||||||||||

But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution. And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity. By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas. A lot of you have heard the term "memes." The evolution of technology, I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know, one of the first things you got was a little hand axe. Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick? Gerações passam, alguém diz, ei, por que não colocamos isso em uma vara? (Laughter) Just absolutely delights the little ones. Next best thing to a video game. Próxima melhor coisa para um jogo de vídeo.

This may not seem to impress, but technological evolution is progressive, so another 10, 20,000 years, and armaments technology takes you here. |||||||||||||||weapons technology|||| (Laughter) Impressive. And the rate of technological evolution speeds up, so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK. (Laughter) And this. (Laughter) I'm sorry -- it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse, and I thought that might do it. (Applause)

So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse is the collapse of global social organization. Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are, to be on the brink of true global social organization. Originally, you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village. |||||||||forager| Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom, which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity with centralized rule. Stonehenge é o remanescente de uma chefia, que é o que você obtém com a invenção da agricultura: política de várias aldeias com governo centralizado. With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry. ||not clear Isso está embaçado. I kind of like that because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you how many levels organic organization has already moved through to get to this point. Eu meio que gosto disso porque faz com que pareça um organismo unicelular e lembra quantos níveis a organização orgânica já percorreu para chegar a esse ponto. And then you get to, you know, you get empires.

I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds. This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire. So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent, even if no polity did similarly. Today, you've got nation states. Point is: there's obviously collaboration and organization going on beyond national bounds. This is actually just a picture of the earth at night, and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty. Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system. Meio que transmite a sensação de que este é um sistema integrado.

Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something called "non-zero sumness." ||||||||||||||total sum Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly, the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations are inverse: always a winner and a loser. Supondo que alguns de vocês não fizeram a leitura designada, muito rapidamente, a ideia-chave é a distinção entre jogos de soma zero, em que as correlações são inversas: sempre um vencedor e um perdedor. Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK. So like in tennis, usually it's win-lose; it always adds up to zero-zero-sum. But if you're playing doubles, the person on your side of the net, they're in the same boat as you, so you're playing a non-zero-sum game with them. It's either for the better or for the worse, OK. A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on in everyday life often leads to cooperation.

The argument I make is basically that, well, non-zero-sum games have always been part of life. O argumento que defendo é basicamente que, bem, jogos de soma diferente de zero sempre fizeram parte da vida. You have them in hunter-gatherer societies, but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games, involving more people over larger territory. Você os tem em sociedades de caçadores-coletores, mas, através da evolução tecnológica, surgem novas formas de tecnologia que facilitam ou incentivam a prática de jogos de soma diferente de zero, envolvendo mais pessoas em um território maior. Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and to harness this productive potential, so you get cities, you know, and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don't think about that are being played across the world. A estrutura social se adapta para acomodar essa possibilidade e aproveitar esse potencial produtivo, então você tem cidades, sabe, e todos os jogos de soma diferente de zero que você não pensa que estão sendo jogados em todo o mundo. Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car, how many people on how many different continents contributed to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect you're playing a non-zero-sum game with. I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around.

Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way, because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win, you know, that's good. Well, there are a few reasons that actually it's not intrinsically upbeat. First of all, it can accommodate; it doesn't deny the existence of inequality exploitation war. But there's a more fundamental reason that it's not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game, all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse. It doesn't necessarily predict a win-win outcome. So, in a way, the question is: on what grounds am I upbeat at all about history? Então, de certa forma, a questão é: por que motivo estou otimista em relação à história? And the answer is, first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. E a resposta é, em primeiro lugar, no geral, eu diria que as pessoas jogaram seus jogos com mais resultados ganha-ganha do que resultados perdedores. On balance, I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department. And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me, most impresses me, and most uplifts me, which is that there is a moral dimension to history; there is a moral arrow. ||||||||||astonishes||||||||||||||||||||||| We have seen moral progress over time.

2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city-state considered members of another Greek city-state subhuman and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived, and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings. It's just the Persians who aren't fully human and don't deserve to be treated very nicely. But this was progress -- you know, give them credit. And now today, we've seen more progress. I think -- I hope -- most people here would say that all people everywhere are human beings, deserve to be treated decently, unless they do something horrendous, regardless of race or religion. And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been, OK. This was not a prevalent view, few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic. I think that's the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities, ethnicities, religions as there is today. Acho que é por isso que há tanta tolerância em relação a nacionalidades, etnias, religiões como existe hoje. If you asked me, you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan, well, I'm only half-joking when I say they built my car. Se você me perguntar, você sabe, por que não sou a favor de bombardear o Japão, bem, estou apenas meio brincando quando digo que eles construíram meu carro. We have this non-zero-sum relationship, and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize that someone else's welfare is positively correlated with yours -- you're more likely to cut them a break. Nós temos esse relacionamento de soma diferente de zero, e acho que isso leva a um tipo de tolerância na medida em que você percebe que o bem-estar de outra pessoa está positivamente correlacionado com o seu – é mais provável que você dê uma pausa. I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality. Unfortunately, I don't fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough to know, or any other kind of business class really, but I assume that in business class, you don't hear many expressions of, you know, bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups, because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class are doing business with all these people; they're making money off all these people. And I really do think that, in that sense at least, capitalism has been a constructive force, and more fundamentally, it's a non-zero-sumness that has been a constructive force in expanding people's realm of moral awareness. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic, which is not only economic by any means -- it's not always commerce -- but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth, which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that. As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization, it has driven us toward moral truth. I think that's wonderful. Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse. And you may wonder, OK, that's all fine, sounds great -- moral direction in history -- but what about this so-called clash of civilizations? Well, first of all, I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework, OK. If you look at the relationship between the so-called Muslim world and Western world -- two terms I don't like, but can't really avoid; in such a short span of time, they're efficient if nothing else -- it is non-zero-sum. Se você olhar para a relação entre o chamado mundo muçulmano e o mundo ocidental -- dois termos que eu não gosto, mas não posso evitar; em um período tão curto de tempo, eles são eficientes se nada mais - é uma soma diferente de zero. And by that I mean, if people in the Muslim world get more hateful, more resentful, less happy with their place in the world, it'll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it'll be good for the West. So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic.

And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time because of technological trends, but more intense in a kind of negative way. It's the downside correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible. É a correlação negativa de suas fortunas que se tornará cada vez mais possível. And one reason is because of something I call the "growing lethality of hatred." E uma razão é por causa de algo que chamo de "crescente letalidade do ódio". More and more, it's possible for grassroots hatred abroad to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil. Cada vez mais, é possível que o ódio popular no exterior se manifeste na forma de violência organizada em solo americano. And that's pretty new, and I think it's probably going to get a lot worse -- this capacity -- because of trends in information technology, in technologies that can be used for purposes of munitions like biotechnology and nanotechnology. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||weapons production|||| E isso é muito novo, e acho que provavelmente vai ficar muito pior -- essa capacidade -- por causa das tendências em tecnologia da informação, em tecnologias que podem ser usadas para propósitos de munições como biotecnologia e nanotecnologia. We may be hearing more about that today. Podemos estar ouvindo mais sobre isso hoje.

And there's something I worry about especially, which is that this dynamic will lead to a kind of a feedback cycle that puts us on a slippery slope. E há algo que me preocupa especialmente, que é que essa dinâmica levará a uma espécie de ciclo de feedback que nos coloca em uma ladeira escorregadia. What I have in mind is: terrorism happens here; we overreact to it. O que tenho em mente é: o terrorismo acontece aqui; reagimos exageradamente a isso. That, you know, we're not sufficiently surgical in our retaliation leads to more hatred abroad, more terrorism. ||||||precise|||||||||| Que, você sabe, não somos suficientemente cirúrgicos em nossa retaliação leva a mais ódio no exterior, mais terrorismo. We overreact because being human, we feel like retaliating, and it gets worse and worse and worse. ||||||||getting back|||||||| Exageramos porque, sendo humanos, sentimos vontade de retaliar, e isso fica cada vez pior e pior. You could call this the positive feedback of negative vibes, but I think in something so spooky, we really shouldn't have the word positive there at all, even in a technical sense. ||||||||||||||||eerie||||||||||||||| Você poderia chamar isso de feedback positivo de vibrações negativas, mas acho que em algo tão assustador, realmente não deveríamos ter a palavra positivo ali, mesmo em um sentido técnico. So let's call it the death spiral of negativity. Então, vamos chamá-lo de espiral da morte da negatividade. (Laughter) I assure you if it happens, at the end, both the West and the Muslim world will have suffered.

So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms control, the international regulation of dangerous technologies. I have a whole global governance sermon that I will spare you right now, because I don't think that's going to be enough anyway, although it's essential. Eu tenho todo um sermão de governança global que vou poupá-los agora, porque eu não acho que isso será suficiente de qualquer maneira, embora seja essencial. I think we're going to have to have a major round of moral progress in the world. Acho que teremos que ter uma grande rodada de progresso moral no mundo. I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among groups, less bigotry, and, you know, racial groups, religious groups, whatever. Eu acho que você vai ter que ver menos ódio entre os grupos, menos intolerância e, você sabe, grupos raciais, grupos religiosos, o que for. I've got to admit I feel silly saying that. It sounds so kind of Pollyannaish. I feel like Rodney King, you know, saying, why can't we all just get along? Eu me sinto como Rodney King, você sabe, dizendo, por que não podemos nos dar bem? But hey, I don't really see any alternative, given the way I read the situation. Mas ei, eu realmente não vejo nenhuma alternativa, dada a maneira como eu leio a situação. There's going to have to be moral progress. Vai ter que haver progresso moral. There's going to have to be a lessening of the amount of hatred in the world, given how dangerous it's becoming. |||||||reduction||||||||||||| In my defense, I'd say, as naive as this may sound, it's ultimately grounded in cynicism. Em minha defesa, eu diria que, por mais ingênuo que isso possa parecer, em última análise, é baseado no cinismo. That is to say -- (Laughter) -- thank you, thank you. Isso quer dizer -- (Risos) -- obrigado, obrigado. That is to say, remember: my whole view of morality is that it boils down to self-interest. Ou seja, lembre-se: toda a minha visão da moralidade é que ela se resume ao interesse próprio. It's when people's fortunes are correlated. É quando as fortunas das pessoas estão correlacionadas. It's when your welfare conduces to mine, that I decide, oh yeah, I'm all in favor of your welfare. ||||contributes|||||||||||||| That's what's responsible for this growth of this moral progress so far, and I'm saying we once again have a correlation of fortunes, and if people respond to it intelligently, we will see the development of tolerance and so on -- the norms that we need, you know. Isso é o responsável por esse crescimento desse progresso moral até agora, e estou dizendo que mais uma vez temos uma correlação de fortunas, e se as pessoas responderem a isso de forma inteligente, veremos o desenvolvimento da tolerância e assim por diante - as normas que nós precisamos, você sabe. We will see the further evolution of this kind of business-class morality. Veremos a evolução futura desse tipo de moralidade da classe empresarial.

So, these two things, you know, if they get people's attention and drive home the positive correlation and people do what's in their self-interests, which is further the moral evolution, then they could actually have a constructive effect. Então, essas duas coisas, você sabe, se elas chamarem a atenção das pessoas e levarem para casa a correlação positiva e as pessoas fizerem o que é de seu interesse, que é mais a evolução moral, então elas podem realmente ter um efeito construtivo. And that's why I lump growing lethality of hatred and death spiral of negativity under the general rubric, reasons to be cheerful. E é por isso que eu coloco a letalidade crescente do ódio e a espiral de morte da negatividade sob a rubrica geral, razões para ser alegre. (Laughter) Doing the best I can, OK. (Risos) Fazendo o melhor que posso, OK. (Laughter) I never called myself Mr. Uplift. I'm just doing what I can here. Estou apenas fazendo o que posso aqui. (Laughter)

Now, launching a moral revolution has got to be hard, right? Agora, lançar uma revolução moral deve ser difícil, certo? I mean, what do you do? Quero dizer, o que você faz? And I think the answer is a lot of different people are going to have to do a lot of different things. We all start where we are. Todos nós começamos onde estamos. Speaking as an American who has children whose security 10, 20, 30 years down the road I worry about -- what I personally want to start out doing is figuring out why so many people around the world hate us, OK. Falando como um americano que tem filhos cuja segurança 10, 20, 30 anos depois eu me preocupo - o que eu pessoalmente quero começar a fazer é descobrir por que tantas pessoas ao redor do mundo nos odeiam, OK. I think that's a worthy research project myself. Eu acho que é um projeto de pesquisa digno de mim. I also like it because it's an intrinsically kind of morally redeeming exercise. |||||||||||morally uplifting| Eu também gosto porque é uma espécie de exercício moralmente redentor. Because to understand why somebody in a very different culture does something -- somebody you're kind of viewing as alien, who's doing things you consider strange in a culture you consider strange -- to really understand why they do the things they do is a morally redeeming accomplishment, because you've got to relate their experience to yours. Porque entender por que alguém em uma cultura muito diferente faz algo - alguém que você vê como um alienígena, que está fazendo coisas que você considera estranhas em uma cultura que você considera estranha - entender realmente por que eles fazem as coisas que fazem é um realização moralmente redentora, porque você tem que relacionar a experiência deles com a sua. To really understand it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it. So when they feel resentful, it's kind of like the way I feel resentful when this happens, and for somewhat the same reasons." Então, quando eles se sentem ressentidos, é como eu me sinto ressentido quando isso acontece, e pelas mesmas razões." That's true understanding. Essa é a verdadeira compreensão. And I think that is an expansion of your moral compass when you manage to do that. E acho que é uma expansão de sua bússola moral quando você consegue fazer isso.

It's especially hard to do when people hate you, OK, because you don't really, in a sense, want to completely understand why people hate you. I mean, you want to hear the reason, but you don't want to be able to relate to it. Quero dizer, você quer ouvir a razão, mas não quer ser capaz de se relacionar com ela. You don't want it to make sense, right? (Laughter) You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand how a human being in those circumstances would hate the country I live in." That's not a pleasant thing, but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and work on. Now, I want to stress that to understand, you know -- there are people who don't like this whole business of understanding the grassroots, the root causes of things; they don't want to know why people hate us. Agora, eu quero enfatizar que para entender, você sabe -- há pessoas que não gostam de todo esse negócio de entender as raízes, as causas das coisas; eles não querem saber por que as pessoas nos odeiam. I want to understand it. The reason you're trying to understand why they hate us, is to get them to quit hating us. A razão pela qual você está tentando entender por que eles nos odeiam, é fazer com que parem de nos odiar. The idea when you go through this moral exercise of really coming to appreciate their humanity and better understand them, is part of an effort to get them to appreciate your humanity in the long run. A ideia quando você passa por esse exercício moral de realmente apreciar a humanidade deles e entendê-los melhor é parte de um esforço para fazê-los apreciar sua humanidade a longo prazo. I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term goal. There are people who worry about this, and in fact, I, myself, apparently, was denounced on national TV a couple of nights ago because of an op-ed I'd written. Há pessoas que se preocupam com isso e, de fato, eu mesmo, aparentemente, fui denunciado em rede nacional algumas noites atrás por causa de um artigo de opinião que escrevi. It was kind of along these lines, and the allegation was that I have, quote, "affection for terrorists." Foi mais ou menos nesse sentido, e a alegação era que eu tenho, aspas, "afeição por terroristas". Now, the good news is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter. (Laughter) (Applause) I mean, if you've got to have an enemy, do make it Ann Coulter. (Laughter) But it's not a crazy concern, OK, because understanding behavior can lead to a kind of empathy, and it can make it a little harder to deliver tough love, and so on. (Risos) Mas não é uma preocupação maluca, OK, porque entender o comportamento pode levar a um tipo de empatia, e pode tornar um pouco mais difícil entregar um amor duro, e assim por diante. But I think we're a lot closer to erring on the side of not comprehending the situation clearly enough, than in comprehending it so clearly that we just can't, you know, get the army out to kill terrorists. ||||||||making a mistake||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Mas acho que estamos muito mais perto de errar do lado de não compreender a situação com clareza suficiente, do que de compreendê-la tão claramente que simplesmente não podemos, você sabe, enviar o exército para matar terroristas. So I'm not really worried about it. So -- (Laughter) -- I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts, but if we succeed -- if we succeed -- then once again, non-zero-sumness and the recognition of non-zero-sum dynamics will have forced us to a higher moral level. And a kind of saving higher moral level, something that kind of literally saves the world. If you look at the word "salvation" in the Bible -- the Christian usage that we're familiar with -- saving souls, that people go to heaven -- that's actually a latecomer. |||||||||||||||||||||||||||newcomer Se você olhar para a palavra "salvação" na Bíblia - o uso cristão com o qual estamos familiarizados - salvar almas, que as pessoas vão para o céu - isso é realmente um retardatário. The original meaning of the word "salvation" in the Bible is about saving the social system. "Yahweh is our Savior" means "He has saved the nation of Israel," which at the time, was a pretty high-level social organization. "Yahweh é nosso Salvador" significa "Ele salvou a nação de Israel", que na época era uma organização social de alto nível. Now, social organization has reached the global level, and I guess, if there's good news I can say I'm bringing you, it's just that all the salvation of the world requires is the intelligent pursuit of self-interests in a disciplined and careful way. It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot anyway because we've just come too far to screw it up now. Digo que devemos tentar de qualquer maneira porque chegamos longe demais para estragar tudo agora. Thanks. (Applause)