2020 경제 위기설, 이번엔 진짜 일까 / 부의 지각 변동 economy|crisis theory|this time|real|will it be|of wealth|perceptual|change Wirtschaftliche Krisentheorie 2020, ist sie diesmal real / Tektonische Verschiebungen des Reichtums La teoría de la crisis económica de 2020, ¿es real esta vez / Cambios tectónicos de la riqueza Teoria da crise económica de 2020: será real desta vez / Mudanças na perceção da riqueza Is the economic crisis prediction for 2020 real this time? / The shift in wealth

수많은 경제전문가들이 2020년에 numerous|economic experts|in 2020 Countless economic experts predict that

경제 위기가 온다고 예언한다. economy|crisis|is coming|predicts an economic crisis will occur in 2020.

하지만 끊임없이 변하는 경제 but|constantly|changing|economy However, accurately predicting the constantly changing economic

상황을 정확히 예언하는 것은 불가능한 일이다. the situation|accurately|predicting|thing|impossible|is situation is an impossible task.

경제전문가들의 예언도 믿을 수 없다면, of economic experts|predictions|trustworthy|possibility|if not If we cannot trust the predictions of economic experts,

우리는 어떻게 경제 위기를 감지할 수 있을까? we|how|economic|crisis|detect|can|we how can we detect an economic crisis?

그리고 어떻게 살아남을 수 있을까? KBS 보도본부 경제부장 and|how|survive|possibility|is there|KBS|news headquarters|head of the economic department And how can we survive? KBS News Department Economic Director

박종훈은 전문가들이 인정한 최고의 경제기자로 Park Jong-hoon|the experts|recognized|best|economic journalist Park Jong-hoon is recognized as the best economic journalist by experts.

이번 책 (책 표지 보여주기) 『2020 부의 지각변동』에서 this|book|book|cover|showing|of wealth|tectonic shift|in In this book (showing the book cover) '2020 Wealth Shift'

곧 도래할 ‘부의 지각변동'을 읽어내는 새로운 방법으로 soon|arriving|of wealth||reading|new|method A new way to read the upcoming 'tectonic shift of wealth'.

‘시그널'을 제안한다. |'suggest' He suggests 'signals'.

그는 먼저, 하루가 다르게 쏟아지는 수많은 정보 중에서 he|first|day|differently|pouring|numerous|information|among He first states that one must know how to distinguish between

가짜 시그널과 진짜 fake|signal|real fake signals and real

시그널을 가려내는 방법을 알아야 한다고 말하며 the signal|filtering|method|should know||while saying signals among the countless information pouring in every day.

오스트리아 와인 스캔들을 예로 든다. 1970년대 후반, Austria|wine|scandal|as an example|is given|1970s|late It cites the Austrian wine scandal as an example. In the late 1970s,

오스트리아에는 in Austria Austria faced

귀부병이라는 병충해가 들어 포도 농장을 휩쓴다. the disease called 'gibubbyeong'|pest|entering|grape|farm|sweeps through a pest called noble rot that swept through the vineyards.

귀부병에 걸린 포도들은 수분이 줄며 the grape disease|infected|grapes|moisture|decreases Grapes affected by noble rot lost moisture,

포도알이 쪼그라들고 썩은 것처럼 보였지만 the grape|shriveled|rotten|like|seemed causing the grape berries to shrivel and appear rotten.

오히려 당도는 크게 올라갔다. rather|the sweetness|significantly|increased On the contrary, the sweetness has greatly increased.

덕분에 와인을 만들면 달콤하고 독특한 풍미가 생겼다. thanks to|wine|when making|sweet|unique|flavor|was created Thanks to that, when making wine, a sweet and unique flavor was created.

그때부터 오스트리아 와인의 수출이 크게 늘면서 from that time|Austria|of wine|export|greatly|increasing Since then, the export of Austrian wine has significantly increased,

유럽 3대 와인 수출국이 됐다. Europe|top 3|wine|exporting country|became becoming one of the top three wine-exporting countries in Europe.

그리고 10년이 지나 귀부병이 유행하지 않으면서 and|10 years|passing|of the disease|is prevalent|not And after 10 years, as noble rot was no longer in vogue,

오스트리아는 위기를 맞는다. Austria|crisis|faces Austria faces a crisis.

귀부 와인 때와 달라진 맛을 회복하기 위해 noble rot|wine|at the time|changed|taste|to recover|in order to To recover the taste that changed from the time of the noble wine,

오스트리아 와인업계는 Austria|wine industry the Austrian wine industry

당시 불법이었던 첨가물 실험을 실시했고 at that time|was illegal|additive|experiment|was conducted conducted experiments with additives that were illegal at the time,

자동차 부동액이 비슷한 맛을 낸다는 걸 car|antifreeze|similar|taste|produces|thing and found that automotive antifreeze produced a similar taste.

발견하고 부동액을 섞어 전 세계로 수출했다. discovered|antifreeze|mixed|to|world|exported Discovered and mixed with antifreeze, it was exported worldwide.

결국 이 사기극은 밝혀졌고 eventually|this|scam|was revealed Eventually, this scam was revealed,

이후 오스트리아 와인업계 전체가 휘청거릴 만큼 큰 타격을 받았다. after|Austria|wine industry|entire|staggering|to the extent|large|blow|received and the entire Austrian wine industry suffered a significant blow.

경제 상황도 마찬가지다. economy|situation|is the same The economic situation is similar.

상황이 급격히 나빠지면 the situation|rapidly|worsens If the situation deteriorates rapidly,

이전에 호황을 맛보았던 경제 주체들이 달콤함을 잊지 못하고 previously|economic boom|had tasted|economy|entities|sweetness|forgetting|unable to Economic agents who have previously tasted prosperity cannot forget the sweetness.

경기 악화를 숨기는 경우가 적지 않다. economy|deterioration|hiding|cases|not few|are not There are not a few cases where they hide the deterioration of the economy.

예를 들어 2008년 글로벌 금융위기가 닥치기 전까지 부시 for example|example|2008|global|financial crisis|approaching|until|Bush For example, until the global financial crisis hit in 2008, President Bush.

대통령은 미국 경제가 튼튼하다며 자신감을 내보였다. the president|American|economy|is strong|confidence|showed He expressed confidence that the U.S. economy was strong.

그러므로 우리는 끊임없이 쏟아내는 가짜 시그널에 therefore|we|constantly|pouring out|fake|signals Therefore, we must constantly be wary of the false signals being emitted.

경각심을 갖고 냉철하게 awareness|having|calmly We must be vigilant and remain cool-headed.

그 진위를 판별할 줄 아는 안목을 길러야 한다. that|authenticity|can discern|way|knowing|insight|should cultivate|do We need to cultivate the ability to discern the truth.

가짜 시그널에 속는다면, fake|signal|if you are deceived If we are deceived by false signals,

우리는 부의 지각변동 속에서 결코 we|of wealth|tectonic shift|in|never we will never be able to survive

살아남을 수 없을 것이다. survive|can|not|will in the shifting landscape of wealth.

2014년 국회 입법조사처는 700여 년 뒤 2014|National Assembly|Legislative Research Service|about 700|years|later In 2014, the National Assembly's Legislative Research Service released a report that suggested

한국인이 멸종할 것이라는 보고서를 내놓았다. Korean|will become extinct|that|report|was released Koreans would become extinct in over 700 years.

우리나라 합계출산율이 1.19명을 our country|total fertility rate|119 children If the total fertility rate in our country remains at 1.19,

유지할 경우 maintain|case then Busan will be in the year 2413,

부산은 2413년에, Busan|in 2413

서울은 2505년에 마지막 Seoul|in 2505|last Seoul is projected to have its last baby born in 2505.

아기가 태어날 것이라고 전망했다. the baby|will be born|that|predicted Prior to this, in 2006, a professor from the University of Oxford's Population Studies Institute also identified South Korea as one of the first countries to disappear due to low birth rates.

이에 앞서 2006년, 옥스퍼드 대학교 this|before|in 2006|Oxford|university In this context, South Korea was highlighted as a representative country that would be most affected by declining birth rates.

인구문제 연구소의 한 교수도 저출산으로 population issue|of the research institute|one|professor|due to low birth rate

가장 먼저 사라질 대표적인 나라로 한국을 꼽았다. the most|first|to disappear|representative|country|Korea|was pointed out

출산율 저하와 고령화가 시작된 나라에서는 더 이상 birth rate|decline|aging|started|in countries|more|no longer In countries where the birth rate has declined and aging has begun, no longer

경제의 역동성을 기대할 수 없다. the economy|dynamism|expecting|possibility|not can we expect the dynamism of the economy.

특히 생산연령인구(15~64세)가 줄어들기 시작한 나라는 저성장의 늪에 빠져 especially|working-age population||subject marker|decreasing|started|country|low growth|in the swamp|falling into In particular, countries where the working-age population (ages 15-64) has started to decrease have fallen into the trap of low growth,

오랫동안 고통받거나 경제 위기를 겪기도 했다. for a long time|suffering|economic|crisis|experiencing|had suffering for a long time or experiencing economic crises.

생산가능인구 감소와 동시에 working-age population|decrease|simultaneously At the same time as the decrease in the working-age population,

버블 붕괴로 20년이 넘는 bubble|collapse|20 years|more than We can see this from Japan, which has experienced a long-term recession for over 20 years due to the bubble collapse.

장기 불황을 겪은 일본을 보면 알 수 있다. long-term|recession|experienced|Japan|if we look at|can|possibility|be The problem is that our low birth rate phenomenon is much more serious than that of Japan.

문제는 우리의 저출산 the problem|our|low birth rate The issue is that our low birth rate phenomenon is much more serious than that of Japan.

현상이 일본과는 the phenomenon|with Japan The issue is that our low birth rate phenomenon is much more serious than that of Japan.

비교할 수 없을 만큼 심각하다는 점이다. comparing|possibility|not|to the extent of|is serious|point The issue is that our low birth rate phenomenon is much more serious than that of Japan.

우리나라의 합계출산율은 2018년 0.98을 기록한 상황에서 our country's|total fertility rate|in 2018|098|recorded|in the situation The total fertility rate in our country recorded 0.98 in 2018,

지금도 가속도가 붙고 있으며 even now|acceleration|is increasing|is and it is still accelerating,

생산 연령인구 비중이 줄어드는 속도도 production|working-age population|proportion|decreasing|rate while the proportion of the working-age population is decreasing at a rate that is

전 세계에서 가장 빠르다. the|in the world|most|fast the fastest in the world.

저자는 경제 역동성이 사라진 the author|economy|dynamism|has disappeared The author states that the economic dynamism has disappeared.

한국 경제의 심각한 증상이자 Korean|economy's|serious|symptom A serious symptom of the Korean economy,

시그널 ‘쏠림'에 주목한다. signal|bias|is paying attention is the focus on the signal of 'concentration'.

경제 성장이 둔화되면서 투자 수익이 전반적으로 낮아지자 economy|growth|slowing down|investment|returns|overall|decreased As economic growth slows down and investment returns generally decrease,

경제가 한 곳으로 몰리는 쏠림 현상이 나타나고 있다. the economy|one|to place|concentrating|concentration|phenomenon|is appearing|is a phenomenon of concentration in one area is emerging.

대표적인 분야가 수출 쏠림이다. representative|field|export|is skewed A representative field is the concentration in exports.

2018년 현재 우리나라 수출의 26%는 대 2018|current|our country|export|26%|to As of 2018, 26% of our country's exports are accounted for by exports to China.

중국 수출이 차지할 정도로 China|export|occupy| The dependence on China has increased to the extent that

중국에 대한 의존도가 커졌다. to China|regarding|dependency|has increased we are heavily reliant on China.

새로운 시장 개척 대신 중국으로의 쏠림을 택한 대가로 new|market|development|instead of|to China|concentration|chosen|as a price Instead of exploring new markets, we chose to focus on China, and as a result,

중국 경제가 조금만 흔들려도 China|economy|just a little|shakes even a slight disturbance in the Chinese economy can have significant effects.

우리 경제가 큰 타격을 받을 정도로 연관성이 커졌다. our|economy|big|blow|receiving||correlation|has increased Our economy has become significantly impacted.

또 다른 문제는 반도체 쏠림이다. another|other|problem|semiconductor|is concentration Another issue is the concentration in semiconductors.

2015년부터 2016년까지 급감했던 수출이 2017년과 from 2015|until 2016|had sharply decreased|exports|with 2017 Exports, which had sharply declined from 2015 to 2016,

2018년 2년 동안 다시 증가세로 돌아섰지만 2018|2 years|for|again|in an upward trend|turned back returned to an upward trend in 2017 and

12대 주력 산업 가운데 12 major|core|industries|among over the two years of 2018.

수출이 눈에 띄게 늘어난 품목은 반도체밖에 없었다. the export|in the|noticeably|increased|item|semiconductor|was not The only item that saw a significant increase in exports was semiconductors.

결국 우리나라의 2년 수출 호황은 eventually|our country's|2-year|export|boom Ultimately, the two-year export boom in our country was

전적으로 반도체의 슈퍼사이클 덕분이었다. entirely|of the semiconductor|supercycle|was due to entirely thanks to the semiconductor supercycle.

자영업 또한 쏠림 현상이 두드러진다. self-employment|also|concentration|phenomenon|is prominent The phenomenon of concentration is also prominent in self-employment.

우리나라 자영업 비중은 2017년 기준으로 our country|self-employment|proportion|2017|based on As of 2017, the proportion of self-employment in our country is

전체 취업자 중 25.4%로 entire|employed person|among|254% 25.4% of all employed individuals are

4명 중 1명이 자영업에 종사하고 있다. 4 people|among|1 person|in self-employment|is engaged|is 1 in 4 people are engaged in self-employment.

관광대국이 아닌 산업 tourism powerhouse|not|industry Not a tourism powerhouse, but an industry

고도화 국가에서 이 같은 쏠림 현상이 나타난 이유는[은] advanced|in the country|this|same|concentration|phenomenon|appearing|reason| The reason for this concentration phenomenon appearing in

수출과 대기업 중심의 경제구조가 export|large corporations|centered on|economic structure an export and large corporation-centered economic structure.

중소기업과 대기업의 양극화를 가중시키고 small and medium-sized enterprises|large enterprises|polarization|exacerbating It has exacerbated the polarization between small and medium-sized enterprises and large corporations.

임금 역시 양극화 시켰기 때문이다. wage|also|polarization|caused|is because Wages have also been polarized.

한 번 노동시장에서 탈락한 사람들은 예전처럼 ‘괜찮은 직장'으로 one|time|in the labor market|eliminated|people|like before|'good|job' Once people fall out of the labor market, it is often difficult for them to re-employ in a 'decent job' like before.

재취업이 어려워 자영업을 택하는 경우가 많다. re-employment|difficult|self-employment|choosing|cases|many As a result, many choose self-employment.

즉[이 같은] 자영업자 쏠림 현상은 우리 산업구조와 that is|this|same|self-employed|concentration|phenomenon|our|industrial structure In other words, this phenomenon of self-employment concentration is related to our industrial structure.

노동시장의 문제점을 보여주는 일그러진 단면인 것이다. labor market|problems|showing|distorted|aspect|is It is a distorted aspect that shows the problems of the labor market.

생산 가능 인구의 감소, 1인 가구의 증가, 수출 쏠림, production|possible|of the population|decrease|single|household|increase|export|concentration The decrease in the working-age population, the increase in single-person households, and the concentration of exports,

자영업자 쏠림 등의 현상은 결국 경제 성장률 저하로 이어져 self-employed|concentration|etc|phenomenon|ultimately|economy|growth rate|decline|leads to as well as the concentration of self-employed individuals, ultimately lead to a decline in economic growth rate.

개인의 소득 감소 그리고 집에 대한 수요 감소, individual|income|decrease|and|to housing|about|demand|decrease This results in a decrease in individual income and a decrease in demand for housing,

집값 하락 등으로 이어진다. house prices|decline|due to|will continue which leads to a drop in housing prices.

그렇다면 앞으로 어떻게 이 위기를 then|in the future|how|this|crisis Then how can we turn this crisis

기회로 바꿀 수 있을 것인가 opportunity|change|possibility|be|can into an opportunity?

‘쏠림' 외에도 ‘금리, 부채, 버블, 환율, concentration||interest rate|debt|bubble|exchange rate In addition to 'concentration', we must not miss the signals of 'interest rates, debt, bubbles, exchange rates,

중국, 인구'라는 시그널을 놓쳐선 안 된다. China|population|signal|should not miss|not|be China, and population'.

7가지 시그널을 포착해야 seven|signals|must capture We need to capture these seven signals.

경제 위기를 한 발 먼저 알아차릴 수 있기 때문이다. economy|crisis|one|step|earlier|noticing|ability|being|because Because it allows us to notice the economic crisis one step ahead.

대규모 경제 위기는 피할 수 없는 우리의 미래다. large-scale|economy|crisis|avoidable|possible|not|our|future A large-scale economic crisis is an unavoidable part of our future.

그 위기에 무너질지 아니면 기회를 통해 승자로 거듭날지는 that|in the crisis|will collapse|or|opportunity|through|as a victor|will be reborn Whether we will collapse in that crisis or emerge as winners through opportunity,

지금 당신이 시그널을 아느냐 모르느냐에 달렸다. now|you|signal|know|whether|depends depends on whether you know the signals or not.

‘어제의 패턴으로는 내일을 예측할 수 없다. yesterday|pattern|tomorrow|predict|possibility|not 'Yesterday's patterns cannot predict tomorrow.

우리는 새로운 경제 we|new|economy We must constantly prepare for the future while observing new economic

시그널을 살피면서 끊임없이 미래를 대비해야 한다.' the signal|while observing|constantly|future|should prepare|do signals.

미래가 보내는 7개의 시그널을 통해 the future|sending|7|signals|through Through the 7 signals sent by the future,

앞으로의 위기와 기회를 살펴보면서 future|crisis|opportunity|while examining we can examine the upcoming crises and opportunities,

2020, 다가오는 미래에 새로운 기회를 만들 수 있을 것이다. coming|in the future|new|opportunity|create|possibility|will be|be able to and create new opportunities in 2020, the approaching future.