Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained
||||悖论|
||Vorbei|||
Ist der Krieg vorbei? - Ein erklärtes Paradoxon
¿Ha terminado la guerra? - Una paradoja explicada
La guerre est-elle finie ? - Un paradoxe expliqué
戦争は終わったのか？- パラドックスの説明
전쟁은 끝났나? - 역설의 설명
Ar karas baigėsi? - Paaiškintas paradoksas
Is de oorlog voorbij? - Een paradox uitgelegd
Czy wojna się skończyła? - Paradoks wyjaśniony
A guerra acabou? - Um paradoxo explicado
Закончилась ли война? - Парадокс объясняется
Savaş Bitti mi? - Açıklanan Bir Paradoks
Війна закінчилася? - Пояснення парадоксу
战争结束了吗？ ——一个悖论的解释
战争结束了吗？ ——一个悖论的解释
戰爭結束了嗎？ ——一個悖論的解釋
Violence
Gewalt
暴力
and war.
和战争。
The insane brutality of ISIS continues,
||残暴|||
|wahnsinnige|||ISIS|
|狂気の||||
La brutalité insensée d'ISIS continue,
ISIS 的疯狂暴行仍在继续，
ISIS的疯狂暴行仍在继续，
the Russians are invading Ukraine,
|die Russen||einmarschieren|Ukraine
俄罗斯人正在入侵乌克兰，
and the Palestinians and Israelis
||||以色列人
||Palästinenser||Israelis
||パレスチナ人||
以及巴勒斯坦人和以色列人
而巴勒斯坦人和以色列人
continue to slug it out.
||kämpfen||
||slug||
continuez à vous en débarrasser.
ずっと戦い続ける。
продолжают бороться.
继续决斗。
仍在继续斗争。
Does that make you feel gloomy?
Macht|||||trüb
|||||憂鬱な気分
Est-ce que cela vous rend triste ?
それはあなたを暗く感じさせますか？
Isso faz-vos sentir tristes?
Well
まあ
don't.
Because if you look at the numbers
war actually seems
to be going out of fashion,
||gehen|||
pasar de moda,
de se démoder,
即将过时，
while the global population
is at an all time high.
está en su punto más alto.
处于历史最高水平。
It seems that we live
in the most peaceful period
|||friedlichen|
在最和平的时期
in human history.
How is this possible?
(music)
As of September 2014,
A partir de septiembre de 2014,
there were 4 conflicts going on
había 4 conflictos en curso
il y avait 4 conflits en cours
发生了4次冲突
in the world that'd caused at least
|||das würde|verursacht||
|||それが|||
en el mundo que había causado al menos
dans le monde qui avait causé au moins
10,000 people to die since January 2013.
9 conflicts that killed
9 conflits qui ont tué
more than 1,000 people
and 13 that killed
more than 100 since January 2013.
plus de 100 depuis janvier 2013.
Not really peaceful,
but consider this:
但考虑一下：
of all the conflicts going on
none is an active war between countries.
aucune n'est une guerre active entre pays.
They are either civil wars
O son guerras civiles
他们要么是内战
or local conflicts.
Although civil wars are terrible
Même si les guerres civiles sont terribles
虽然内战很可怕
and cause huge suffering,
并造成巨大的痛苦，
their impact is usually way smaller
leur impact est généralement beaucoup plus faible
它们的影响通常要小得多
than a war between nations or empires.
When two nations engage in war,
they can mobilise much bigger forces,
||mobilisieren|||
||動員する|||
他们可以调动更大的力量，
have access to all of the state's
||||||Staats
tienen acceso a todos los
ont accès à toutes les données de l'État
可以访问该州的所有
resources and logistics and
||Logistik|
||物流|
almost all of the population.
So why have we transitioned from
||||übergegangen|
||||移行した|
¿Por qué hemos pasado de
wars between nation states
wars between nation states
A lot of it is to do with
Mucho tiene que ver con
Il s'agit en grande partie de
很多都与
colonialism and the cold war.
Kolonialismus||||
殖民主义和冷战。
When the cold war ended, a major driver of
|||||||Treiber|
Cuando terminó la guerra fría, un importante motor de
冷战结束后，一个主要驱动力
armed conflicts vanished too.
bewaffnet||verschwunden|
conflictos armados también desaparecieron.
les conflits armés ont également disparu.
武装冲突也消失了。
But the break up of the
Pero la ruptura de la
communist dictatorships
kommunistisch|Diktaturen
|独裁政治
dictatures communistes
共产主义专政
revealed new or old tensions
and brought new conflicts
in the now freed states
|||befreiten|
en los estados ahora liberados
在现在自由的州
which often resulted in civil war.
||resultierte|||
这经常导致内战。
Much more importantly,
in 1945,
nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,
and parts of Latin America
were under colonial rule.
||kolonial|
By 1990,
all but a few islands were independent.
||||Inseln||
toutes les îles, à l'exception de quelques-unes, étaient indépendantes.
除了少数岛屿外，其他岛屿都是独立的。
But wait.
Couldn't you argue that what today's
Könntest du nicht|||||
¿No podría argumentar que lo que hoy en día
multinational corporations
multinational|
are doing in the third world
is just as bad as colonialism?
Let's look at Congo.
|||Kongo
It was established as a colony in 1885
Es|||||Kolonie|
by the Belgium king.
||Belgien|
An area 80 times the size of Belgium.
Violence committed against
Violences commises contre
the indigenous Congolese
|einheimisch|kongolesisch
||コンゴの人々
and the ruthless system of
||rücksichtsloses||
y el despiadado sistema de
et le système impitoyable de
economic exploitation
|搾取
had killed about half of the population
by 1908.
About 10 million Congolese were executed
||||ausgeführt
or starved to death.
|verhungert||
ou mourir de faim.
Millions were mutilated and traumatised.
||verstümmelt||traumatisiert
||||トラウマを抱えた
The economic exploitation of the Congo
remained the top priority
est restée la priorité absolue
and forced labor never really ceased
|||||aufgehört
und Zwangsarbeit hörte nie wirklich auf
y los trabajos forzados nunca cesaron realmente
et le travail forcé n'a jamais vraiment cessé
completely until the end of Belgium rule
||||||Herrschaft
vollständig bis zum Ende der belgischen Herrschaft
in 1960.
1960.
Which is not really that long ago.
No hace tanto tiempo.
So, no.
Colonialism was much worse than
vulture capitalism is today
Geier|Kapitalismus||
ハゲタカ|||
el capitalismo buitre es hoy
le capitalisme vautour est aujourd'hui
and it ended just two generations ago.
Most of the conflicts
that are going on right now
are in areas that 60 years ago
were under foreign control.
étaient sous contrôle étranger.
But things are getting better.
Until 1989,
victory for one side in a civil war
Sieg|||||||
victoire d'un camp dans une guerre civile
was common
était commun
while nowadays victories are much rarer.
||Siege|||
||勝利|||
mientras que hoy en día las victorias son mucho más raras.
alors que de nos jours les victoires sont beaucoup plus rares.
At the same time,
negotiated endings have jumped from 10%
verhandelt|Enden||gestiegen|
to almost 40%.
What about the rest of the world?
Why have nation states
stopped attacking each other?
¿dejaron de atacarse?
There are 4 major reasons:
One.
Democratisation.
Demokratisierung
民主化
The steady development
|着実な|
El desarrollo constante
from autocracy to democracy.
|独裁政治||
de l'autocratie à la démocratie.
Democracies hardly ever fight each other.
民主主義|||||
Les démocraties ne se combattent presque jamais.
Of all the state against state wars
De todas las guerras de Estado contra Estado
fought since 1900, only a minority
||||Minderheit
were fought between democracies.
Two.
Globalisation.
Globalisierung
グローバリゼーション
War is just not as effective at achieving
La guerra no es tan eficaz para lograr
La guerre n'est tout simplement pas aussi efficace pour atteindre
economic goals as it used to be.
objectifs économiques comme autrefois.
Today it's almost always cheaper
Aujourd'hui c'est presque toujours moins cher
to buy resources on the global market
than to cease them by force.
||aufhören|||
||停止する|||
que ponerles fin por la fuerza.
que de les arrêter par la force.
People from other nations are
more valuable to us alive than dead.
más valioso para nosotros vivo que muerto.
plus précieux pour nous vivants que morts.
Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.
Ce qui, dans l'ensemble, est un concept assez nouveau.
Three.
War is so 20th century.
Krieg||||
La guerra es tan del siglo XX.
Война - это такой XX век.
Until World War I, warfare was seen as an
||||Krieg||||
Hasta la Primera Guerra Mundial, la guerra se veía como un
Jusqu'à la Première Guerre mondiale, la guerre était considérée comme un
inevitable part of the human experience
unvermeidlich|||||
避けられない|||||
and as a valuable tool which you could use
to achieve goals when diplomacy
||||Diplomatie Verhandlungen Beziehungen
||||外交
hit a brick wall.
||Ziegel|
chocó contra un muro.
Today we have rules that declare acts of
|||||erklären||
aggression illegal and stipulate that
Aggression|||vorschreiben|
攻撃性||||
armed forces is only justified in
||||gerechtfertigt|
||||正当化された|
self-defence or with the authority of the
UN Security Council.
||Rat
These rules are still broken but today
||sind||||
Estas normas se siguen incumpliendo, pero hoy
it's harder to do so without sparking
||||||entzünden
es más difícil hacerlo sin provocar
c'est plus difficile de le faire sans étincelle
oppositions and disapproval.
Widersprüche||Missbilligung
反対||
oppositions et désapprobations.
Also, we have an international court for
||||internationalen||
war crimes in The Hague.
|Kriegsverbrechen||die|Den Haag
||||ハーグ
And that's a very recent innovation.
Four.
Borders are mostly fixed now.
|||festgelegt|
After World War II,
territorial wars generally stopped
territorial||generell|
when most countries pledged to accept
|||verpflichteten||
cuando la mayoría de los países se comprometieron a aceptar
lorsque la plupart des pays se sont engagés à accepter
international borders
and respect other nations autonomy.
||||Autonomie
But is all of this just an anomaly
|||||||Anomalie
|||||||異常
Pero, ¿es todo esto sólo una anomalía
or are we on the road to lasting peace?
|||||Weg|||Frieden
ou sommes-nous sur la voie d'une paix durable ?
Truth is
we don't know yet.
||wissen|
We need a big enough sample to rule out
||||||zu|ausschließen|
|||||||ルール|
Nous avons besoin d'un échantillon suffisamment grand pour exclure
the historical average, which is about
one or two big wars per century.
We just haven't had enough time since
World War II to rule out the possibility
|||||||Möglichkeit
that war is not going away.
||ist||vorbeigehen|
If we don't have one major war
Si no tenemos una gran guerra
Si nous n'avons pas de guerre majeure
in the next 75 years,
we can be really confident
||||zuversichtlich
that humanity is changing.
So you see, war might be over.
Yes there are nasty conflicts
Oui il y a des conflits désagréables
going on in many places but overall,
passe dans de nombreux endroits, mais dans l'ensemble,
things are getting better.
And we can make them even better
by speaking up for peace and democracy.
|話すこと|||||
defendiendo la paz y la democracia.
平和と民主主義のために声を上げることによって。
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字幕はAmara.orgコミュニティによって提供されています
