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Kurzgesagt (In a Nutshell), Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained

Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained

Violence

and war.

The insane brutality of ISIS continues,

the Russians are invading Ukraine,

and the Palestinians and Israelis

continue to slug it out.

Does that make you feel gloomy?

Well

don't.

Because if you look at the numbers

war actually seems

to be going out of fashion,

while the global population

is at an all time high.

It seems that we live

in the most peaceful period

in human history.

How is this possible?

(music)

As of September 2014,

there were 4 conflicts going on

in the world that'd caused at least

10,000 people to die since January 2013.

9 conflicts that killed

more than 1,000 people

and 13 that killed

more than 100 since January 2013.

Not really peaceful,

but consider this:

of all the conflicts going on

none is an active war between countries.

They are either civil wars

or local conflicts.

Although civil wars are terrible

and cause huge suffering,

their impact is usually way smaller

than a war between nations or empires.

When two nations engage in war,

they can mobilise much bigger forces,

have access to all of the state's

resources and logistics and

almost all of the population.

So why have we transitioned from

wars between nation states

A lot of it is to do with

colonialism and the cold war.

When the cold war ended, a major driver of

armed conflicts vanished too.

But the break up of the

communist dictatorships

revealed new or old tensions

and brought new conflicts

in the now freed states

which often resulted in civil war.

Much more importantly,

in 1945,

nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,

and parts of Latin America

were under colonial rule.

By 1990,

all but a few islands were independent.

But wait.

Couldn't you argue that what today's

multinational corporations

are doing in the third world

is just as bad as colonialism?

Let's look at Congo.

It was established as a colony in 1885

by the Belgium king.

An area 80 times the size of Belgium.

Violence committed against

the indigenous Congolese

and the ruthless system of

economic exploitation

had killed about half of the population

by 1908.

About 10 million Congolese were executed

or starved to death.

Millions were mutilated and traumatised.

The economic exploitation of the Congo

remained the top priority

and forced labor never really ceased

completely until the end of Belgium rule

in 1960.

Which is not really that long ago.

So, no.

Colonialism was much worse than

vulture capitalism is today

and it ended just two generations ago.

Most of the conflicts

that are going on right now

are in areas that 60 years ago

were under foreign control.

But things are getting better.

Until 1989,

victory for one side in a civil war

was common

while nowadays victories are much rarer.

At the same time,

negotiated endings have jumped from 10%

to almost 40%.

What about the rest of the world?

Why have nation states

stopped attacking each other?

There are 4 major reasons:

One.

Democratisation.

The steady development

from autocracy to democracy.

Democracies hardly ever fight each other.

Of all the state against state wars

fought since 1900, only a minority

were fought between democracies.

Two.

Globalisation.

War is just not as effective at achieving

economic goals as it used to be.

Today it's almost always cheaper

to buy resources on the global market

than to cease them by force.

People from other nations are

more valuable to us alive than dead.

Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.

Three.

War is so 20th century.

Until World War I, warfare was seen as an

inevitable part of the human experience

and as a valuable tool which you could use

to achieve goals when diplomacy

hit a brick wall.

Today we have rules that declare acts of

aggression illegal and stipulate that

armed forces is only justified in

self-defence or with the authority of the

UN Security Council.

These rules are still broken but today

it's harder to do so without sparking

oppositions and disapproval.

Also, we have an international court for

war crimes in The Hague.

And that's a very recent innovation.

Four.

Borders are mostly fixed now.

After World War II,

territorial wars generally stopped

when most countries pledged to accept

international borders

and respect other nations autonomy.

But is all of this just an anomaly

or are we on the road to lasting peace?

Truth is

we don't know yet.

We need a big enough sample to rule out

the historical average, which is about

one or two big wars per century.

We just haven't had enough time since

World War II to rule out the possibility

that war is not going away.

If we don't have one major war

in the next 75 years,

we can be really confident

that humanity is changing.

So you see, war might be over.

Yes there are nasty conflicts

going on in many places but overall,

things are getting better.

And we can make them even better

by speaking up for peace and democracy.

Subtitles by the Amara.org community

Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained ||||悖论| ||Vorbei||| Ist der Krieg vorbei? - Ein erklärtes Paradoxon ¿Ha terminado la guerra? - Una paradoja explicada La guerre est-elle finie ? - Un paradoxe expliqué 戦争は終わったのか？- パラドックスの説明 전쟁은 끝났나? - 역설의 설명 Ar karas baigėsi? - Paaiškintas paradoksas Is de oorlog voorbij? - Een paradox uitgelegd Czy wojna się skończyła? - Paradoks wyjaśniony A guerra acabou? - Um paradoxo explicado Закончилась ли война? - Парадокс объясняется Savaş Bitti mi? - Açıklanan Bir Paradoks Війна закінчилася? - Пояснення парадоксу 战争结束了吗？ ——一个悖论的解释战争结束了吗？ ——一个悖论的解释戰爭結束了嗎？ ——一個悖論的解釋

Violence Gewalt 暴力

and war. 和战争。

The insane brutality of ISIS continues, ||残暴||| |wahnsinnige|||ISIS| |狂気の|||| La brutalité insensée d'ISIS continue, ISIS 的疯狂暴行仍在继续， ISIS的疯狂暴行仍在继续，

the Russians are invading Ukraine, |die Russen||einmarschieren|Ukraine 俄罗斯人正在入侵乌克兰，

and the Palestinians and Israelis ||||以色列人 ||Palästinenser||Israelis ||パレスチナ人|| 以及巴勒斯坦人和以色列人而巴勒斯坦人和以色列人

continue to slug it out. ||kämpfen|| ||slug|| continuez à vous en débarrasser. ずっと戦い続ける。 продолжают бороться. 继续决斗。仍在继续斗争。

Does that make you feel gloomy? Macht|||||trüb |||||憂鬱な気分 Est-ce que cela vous rend triste ? それはあなたを暗く感じさせますか？ Isso faz-vos sentir tristes?

Well まあ

don't.

Because if you look at the numbers

war actually seems

to be going out of fashion, ||gehen||| pasar de moda, de se démoder, 即将过时，

while the global population

is at an all time high. está en su punto más alto. 处于历史最高水平。

It seems that we live

in the most peaceful period |||friedlichen| 在最和平的时期

in human history.

How is this possible?

(music)

As of September 2014, A partir de septiembre de 2014,

there were 4 conflicts going on había 4 conflictos en curso il y avait 4 conflits en cours 发生了4次冲突

in the world that'd caused at least |||das würde|verursacht|| |||それが||| en el mundo que había causado al menos dans le monde qui avait causé au moins

10,000 people to die since January 2013.

9 conflicts that killed 9 conflits qui ont tué

more than 1,000 people

and 13 that killed

more than 100 since January 2013. plus de 100 depuis janvier 2013.

Not really peaceful,

but consider this: 但考虑一下：

of all the conflicts going on

none is an active war between countries. aucune n'est une guerre active entre pays.

They are either civil wars O son guerras civiles 他们要么是内战

or local conflicts.

Although civil wars are terrible Même si les guerres civiles sont terribles 虽然内战很可怕

and cause huge suffering, 并造成巨大的痛苦，

their impact is usually way smaller leur impact est généralement beaucoup plus faible 它们的影响通常要小得多

than a war between nations or empires.

When two nations engage in war,

they can mobilise much bigger forces, ||mobilisieren||| ||動員する||| 他们可以调动更大的力量，

have access to all of the state's ||||||Staats tienen acceso a todos los ont accès à toutes les données de l'État 可以访问该州的所有

resources and logistics and ||Logistik| ||物流|

almost all of the population.

So why have we transitioned from ||||übergegangen| ||||移行した| ¿Por qué hemos pasado de

wars between nation states

A lot of it is to do with Mucho tiene que ver con Il s'agit en grande partie de 很多都与

colonialism and the cold war. Kolonialismus|||| 殖民主义和冷战。

When the cold war ended, a major driver of |||||||Treiber| Cuando terminó la guerra fría, un importante motor de 冷战结束后，一个主要驱动力

armed conflicts vanished too. bewaffnet||verschwunden| conflictos armados también desaparecieron. les conflits armés ont également disparu. 武装冲突也消失了。

But the break up of the Pero la ruptura de la

communist dictatorships kommunistisch|Diktaturen |独裁政治 dictatures communistes 共产主义专政

revealed new or old tensions

and brought new conflicts

in the now freed states |||befreiten| en los estados ahora liberados 在现在自由的州

which often resulted in civil war. ||resultierte||| 这经常导致内战。

Much more importantly,

in 1945,

nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,

and parts of Latin America

were under colonial rule. ||kolonial|

By 1990,

all but a few islands were independent. ||||Inseln|| toutes les îles, à l'exception de quelques-unes, étaient indépendantes. 除了少数岛屿外，其他岛屿都是独立的。

But wait.

Couldn't you argue that what today's Könntest du nicht||||| ¿No podría argumentar que lo que hoy en día

multinational corporations multinational|

are doing in the third world

is just as bad as colonialism?

Let's look at Congo. |||Kongo

It was established as a colony in 1885 Es|||||Kolonie|

by the Belgium king. ||Belgien|

An area 80 times the size of Belgium.

Violence committed against Violences commises contre

the indigenous Congolese |einheimisch|kongolesisch ||コンゴの人々

and the ruthless system of ||rücksichtsloses|| y el despiadado sistema de et le système impitoyable de

economic exploitation |搾取

had killed about half of the population

by 1908.

About 10 million Congolese were executed ||||ausgeführt

or starved to death. |verhungert|| ou mourir de faim.

Millions were mutilated and traumatised. ||verstümmelt||traumatisiert ||||トラウマを抱えた

The economic exploitation of the Congo

remained the top priority est restée la priorité absolue

and forced labor never really ceased |||||aufgehört und Zwangsarbeit hörte nie wirklich auf y los trabajos forzados nunca cesaron realmente et le travail forcé n'a jamais vraiment cessé

completely until the end of Belgium rule ||||||Herrschaft vollständig bis zum Ende der belgischen Herrschaft

in 1960. 1960.

Which is not really that long ago. No hace tanto tiempo.

So, no.

Colonialism was much worse than

vulture capitalism is today Geier|Kapitalismus|| ハゲタカ||| el capitalismo buitre es hoy le capitalisme vautour est aujourd'hui

and it ended just two generations ago.

Most of the conflicts

that are going on right now

are in areas that 60 years ago

were under foreign control. étaient sous contrôle étranger.

But things are getting better.

Until 1989,

victory for one side in a civil war Sieg||||||| victoire d'un camp dans une guerre civile

was common était commun

while nowadays victories are much rarer. ||Siege||| ||勝利||| mientras que hoy en día las victorias son mucho más raras. alors que de nos jours les victoires sont beaucoup plus rares.

At the same time,

negotiated endings have jumped from 10% verhandelt|Enden||gestiegen|

to almost 40%.

What about the rest of the world?

Why have nation states

stopped attacking each other? ¿dejaron de atacarse?

There are 4 major reasons:

One.

Democratisation. Demokratisierung 民主化

The steady development |着実な| El desarrollo constante

from autocracy to democracy. |独裁政治|| de l'autocratie à la démocratie.

Democracies hardly ever fight each other. 民主主義||||| Les démocraties ne se combattent presque jamais.

Of all the state against state wars De todas las guerras de Estado contra Estado

fought since 1900, only a minority ||||Minderheit

were fought between democracies.

Two.

Globalisation. Globalisierung グローバリゼーション

War is just not as effective at achieving La guerra no es tan eficaz para lograr La guerre n'est tout simplement pas aussi efficace pour atteindre

economic goals as it used to be. objectifs économiques comme autrefois.

Today it's almost always cheaper Aujourd'hui c'est presque toujours moins cher

to buy resources on the global market

than to cease them by force. ||aufhören||| ||停止する||| que ponerles fin por la fuerza. que de les arrêter par la force.

People from other nations are

more valuable to us alive than dead. más valioso para nosotros vivo que muerto. plus précieux pour nous vivants que morts.

Which, overall, is a pretty new concept. Ce qui, dans l'ensemble, est un concept assez nouveau.

Three.

War is so 20th century. Krieg|||| La guerra es tan del siglo XX. Война - это такой XX век.

Until World War I, warfare was seen as an ||||Krieg|||| Hasta la Primera Guerra Mundial, la guerra se veía como un Jusqu'à la Première Guerre mondiale, la guerre était considérée comme un

inevitable part of the human experience unvermeidlich||||| 避けられない|||||

and as a valuable tool which you could use

to achieve goals when diplomacy ||||Diplomatie Verhandlungen Beziehungen ||||外交

hit a brick wall. ||Ziegel| chocó contra un muro.

Today we have rules that declare acts of |||||erklären||

aggression illegal and stipulate that Aggression|||vorschreiben| 攻撃性||||

armed forces is only justified in ||||gerechtfertigt| ||||正当化された|

self-defence or with the authority of the

UN Security Council. ||Rat

These rules are still broken but today ||sind|||| Estas normas se siguen incumpliendo, pero hoy

it's harder to do so without sparking ||||||entzünden es más difícil hacerlo sin provocar c'est plus difficile de le faire sans étincelle

oppositions and disapproval. Widersprüche||Missbilligung 反対|| oppositions et désapprobations.

Also, we have an international court for ||||internationalen||

war crimes in The Hague. |Kriegsverbrechen||die|Den Haag ||||ハーグ

And that's a very recent innovation.

Four.

Borders are mostly fixed now. |||festgelegt|

After World War II,

territorial wars generally stopped territorial||generell|

when most countries pledged to accept |||verpflichteten|| cuando la mayoría de los países se comprometieron a aceptar lorsque la plupart des pays se sont engagés à accepter

international borders

and respect other nations autonomy. ||||Autonomie

But is all of this just an anomaly |||||||Anomalie |||||||異常 Pero, ¿es todo esto sólo una anomalía

or are we on the road to lasting peace? |||||Weg|||Frieden ou sommes-nous sur la voie d'une paix durable ?

Truth is

we don't know yet. ||wissen|

We need a big enough sample to rule out ||||||zu|ausschließen| |||||||ルール| Nous avons besoin d'un échantillon suffisamment grand pour exclure

the historical average, which is about

one or two big wars per century.

We just haven't had enough time since

World War II to rule out the possibility |||||||Möglichkeit

that war is not going away. ||ist||vorbeigehen|

If we don't have one major war Si no tenemos una gran guerra Si nous n'avons pas de guerre majeure

in the next 75 years,

we can be really confident ||||zuversichtlich

that humanity is changing.

So you see, war might be over.

Yes there are nasty conflicts Oui il y a des conflits désagréables

going on in many places but overall, passe dans de nombreux endroits, mais dans l'ensemble,

things are getting better.

And we can make them even better

by speaking up for peace and democracy. |話すこと||||| defendiendo la paz y la democracia. 平和と民主主義のために声を上げることによって。

Subtitles by the Amara.org community 字幕はAmara.orgコミュニティによって提供されています