Vol.093为什么 你 炒股 总是 亏钱 ？ |why|you|stock trading|always|lose money Vol.093 Why do you always lose money in stock trading?

在 中国 股市 at|China|stock market In the Chinese stock market

亏钱 是 基本 操作 lose money|is|basic|operation losing money is a basic operation

截止 2009 年 7 月 中国 有 1.5 亿 股民 as of|year 2009|July|China|has|150 million|stock investors As of July 2009, there are 150 million stock investors in China.

但 亏钱 的 流程 都 差不多 but|lose money|attributive marker|process|all|similar But the process of losing money is pretty much the same.

股市 在 涨 亲朋好友 都 在 买 stock market|is|rising|friends and family|all|are|buying When the stock market is rising, friends and family are all buying.

所以 你 跟着 买点 so|you|follow|buy some So you follow along and buy a bit.

计划 很 简单 plan|very|simple The plan is very simple.

挑 一个 大家 都 说 好 的 股票 choose|one|everyone|all|say|good|attributive marker|stock Pick a stock that everyone says is good.

10 块钱 买进 1 万股 yuan|buy in|ten thousand shares Buy 10,000 shares for 10 yuan.

20 块 卖出 10 万块 到手 Sell for 20 yuan, getting 100,000 yuan in hand.

当然 还 没 怎么 涨 就 开始 暴跌 了 of course|still|not|how|rise|then|start|plummet|emphasis marker Of course, it hasn't risen much before it starts to plummet.

根据 同花顺 2016 年 的 报告 according to|Tonghuashun|year 2016|attributive marker|report According to the Tonghuashun report in 2016

72% 的 股民 都 在 亏钱 attributive marker|stock investors|all|in|losing money 72% of stock investors are losing money

为什么 亏钱 总是 大多数 ？ why|lose money|always|majority Why do the majority always lose money?

要 知道 你 为什么 亏钱 want|to know|you|why|lose money You need to understand why you are losing money

首先 我们 要 知道 一支 股票 是 如何 上涨 的 first|we|need|know|one|stock|is|how|rise|attributive marker First, we need to understand how a stock rises.

假设 我厂 成功 上市 assume|our factory|successfully|go public Assuming our company successfully goes public.

在 A股 流通 1 亿股 at|A-shares|circulating|hundred million shares There are 100 million shares circulating in the A-shares.

此时 的 股价 是 每股 10 元 at this time|attributive marker|stock price|is|per share|yuan At this time, the stock price is 10 yuan per share.

我们 可以 在 交易 界面 里 看到 买盘 和 卖盘 we|can|in|trading|interface|inside|see|buy orders|and|sell orders We can see the buy and sell orders in the trading interface.

买盘 的 买家 愿意 以 10 元 每股 购入 1000 股 buy order|attributive marker|buyer|willing|at|10 yuan|per share|purchase|1000 shares The buyer in the buy order is willing to purchase 1000 shares at 10 yuan per share.

卖盘 里 的 卖家 愿意 以 10.1 元 每股 的 价格 卖出 1000 股 sell order|in|attributive marker|seller|willing|at|101 yuan|per share|attributive marker|price|sell|1000 shares The seller in the sell order is willing to sell 1000 shares at a price of 10.1 yuan per share.

此时 无法 达成 交易 at this time|unable to|reach|deal At this moment, a transaction cannot be completed.

所以 股价 就是 10 块 so|stock price|is|yuan So the stock price is 10 yuan.

当 出现 了 愿意 用 10 块 1 买入 的 买家 时 when|appear|past tense marker|willing|use|10 yuan|buy|attributive marker|buyer|time marker When there is a buyer willing to buy at 10 yuan and 1 cent.

买卖双方 完成 交易 buyer and seller|complete|transaction The buyer and seller complete the transaction.

此时 股价 就 涨 到 了 10 块 1 at this time|stock price|just|rise|to|past tense marker|yuan At this point, the stock price rises to 10 yuan and 1 cent.

1000 股 10 块 1 的 股票 卖完 之后 shares|yuan|attributive marker|stock|sold out|after After selling 1000 shares at 10 yuan each.

再 买入 干燥 工厂 就 需要 出 10 块 2 了 again|buy in|dry|factory|then|need|pay|yuan|emphasis marker Then buying into the dry factory will require 10 yuan 2.

反之 当 持有 股票 的 卖方 愿意 以 更 低 的 价格 卖出 时 Conversely, when the seller holding the stock is willing to sell at a lower price.

股价 就 下跌 了 stock price|just|fell|emphasis marker The stock price will drop.

那么 是 什么 支撑 着 股民 出 更高 的 价格 买入 一支 股票 呢 ？ then|is|what|support|ongoing action marker|stock investors|out|higher|attributive marker|price|buy|one|stock|question marker So what supports stock investors to buy a stock at a higher price?

正常 情况 下 当然 是 因为 你 看好 这家 公司 normal|situation|under|of course|is|because|you|optimistic about|this|company Under normal circumstances, it is of course because you are optimistic about this company.

但 中国 股民 还 会 关注 各种 K 线 指标 but|China|stock investors|still|will|pay attention to|various|||indicators But Chinese stock investors also pay attention to various K-line indicators.

甚至 「日周 月 金叉 砸锅卖铁 买 」这种 炒股 口诀 和 教 你 「双龙 齐飞 」这样 的 魔幻 教学 视频 even|daily and weekly|monthly|golden cross|sell everything|buy|this kind of|stock trading|mnemonic|and|teach|you|double dragon|fly together|like this|attributive marker|magical|teaching|video Even phrases like 'buy when the daily, weekly, and monthly golden crosses occur' and magical tutorial videos teaching you 'double dragons flying together'.

除此以外 短期内 股票 上涨 还会 有 各种 原因 apart from this|in the short term|stocks|rise|will also|have|various|reasons In addition, there will be various reasons for the stock market to rise in the short term.

国际 形势 、政策 利好 甚至 是 热点 新闻 international|situation|policy|favorable|even|is|hot|news International situation, favorable policies, and even hot news.

比如 文章 出轨 for example|article|infidelity For example, an article about infidelity.

伊利 股份 两天 涨 了 5% Yili|shares|two days|rise|past tense marker Yili shares rose by 5% in two days.

川普 当选 总统 Trump|elected|president Trump elected president

软件 公司 川大 智胜 当天 上涨 9% software|company|Sichuan University|Zhisheng|on the same day|rose Software company Chuan Da Zhi Sheng rose 9% that day

有时 改名 都 能 让 股价 暴涨 sometimes|rename|all|can|make|stock price|skyrocket Sometimes a name change can lead to a surge in stock prices

2015 年 5 月 主营 建材 的 多伦 股份 更名 为 匹 凸 匹 公司 后 year|month|main business|building materials|attributive marker|Doran|shares|renamed|to|Pi|Tu|Pi|company|after In May 2015, the building materials company Duolun Co., Ltd. changed its name to Pi Tu Pi Company and afterwards

就 连续 涨停 了 6 天 just|continuously|limit up|past tense marker|days It has been on a continuous limit-up for 6 days.

但 这些 都 是 噪音 but|these|all|are|noise But all of this is just noise.

从 长期 来看 from|long-term|perspective In the long term,

一支 股票 上涨 只有 一个 原因 one|stock|rise|only|one|reason there is only one reason for a stock to rise.

公司 越来越 值钱 了 company|more and more|valuable|emphasis marker The company has become more and more valuable.

这 是 过去 15 年 A股 所有 公司 的 净资产 曲线 this|is|past|years|A-shares|all|companies|attributive marker|net assets|curve This is the net asset curve of all companies in the A-share market over the past 15 years.

这 是 A股 整体 走势 this|is|A-shares|overall|trend This is the overall trend of the A-share market.

这 15 年 股价 虽然 疯狂 波动 this|years|stock price|although|crazy|fluctuations Although the stock prices have fluctuated wildly over these 15 years.

但 总能 回归 到 净资产 的 价格 附近 but|always able to|return to|to|net asset|attributive marker|price|vicinity But it always tends to return to the price near the net asset value.

这 也 符合 常识 this|also|conforms to|common sense This also makes sense.

股价 反应 的 就是 公司 价值 stock price|reflect|attributive marker|is|company|value The stock price reflects the company's value.

同 一家 公司 For the same company.

资产 100 亿 的 时候 大 概率 比 资产 10 亿 时 值钱 asset|billion|attributive marker|time|big|probability|than|asset|billion|time|worth money When the assets are 10 billion, they are likely to be worth more than when the assets are 1 billion.

今天 净资产 36 万亿 的 A股 上市公司 也 肯定 比 10 年 前 净资产 7 万亿 的 时候 值钱 today|net assets|trillion|attributive marker|A-shares|listed companies|also|definitely|than|years|ago|net assets|trillion|attributive marker|time|worth money Today, A-share listed companies with a net asset of 36 trillion are certainly worth more than when they had a net asset of 7 trillion 10 years ago.

人类 的 经济 总是 在 增长 humanity|attributive marker|economy|always|in|growth Human economy is always growing.

对应 的 股价 也 当然 更高 corresponding|attributive marker|stock price|also|of course|higher Correspondingly, stock prices are of course higher.

评价 股价 和 公司 资产 之间 关系 的 指标 叫做 PB evaluation|stock price|and|company|assets|between|relationship|attributive marker|indicator|is called|price-to-book ratio The indicator that evaluates the relationship between stock price and company assets is called PB.

Price/Book Ratio 市净率 Price/Book Ratio.

把 股价 除以 每股 对应 的 净资产 就 得到 了 PB take|stock price|divided by|per share|corresponding|attributive marker|net asset|then|get|past tense marker|price-to-book ratio Dividing the stock price by the corresponding net asset per share gives you PB.

如果 一家 净资产 10 亿 的 公司 股价 市值 也 是 10 亿 If a company has a net asset of 1 billion, its stock price market value is also 1 billion.

那么 PB 就是 10 除以 10 等于 1 so|PB|is|divided by|equals So PB is 10 divided by 10 equals 1.

如果 PB 比 1 还 低 if|PB|than|still|low If PB is lower than 1,

那 直接 买下 公司 都 不太 可能 亏 that|directly|buy out|company|at all|not very|likely|lose then directly buying the company is unlikely to result in a loss.

除了 PB 也 可以 把 股价 除以 每股 盈利 金额 apart from|price-to-book ratio|also|can|put|stock price|divide by|per share|earnings|amount Besides PB, you can also divide the stock price by the earnings per share.

这样 就算 出 了 市盈率 PE this way|even if|out|emphasis marker|price-to-earnings ratio|PE In this way, even if the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) comes out.

一家 每年 盈利 1 亿 的 公司 如果 股票 市值 是 10 亿 one|every year|profit|100 million|attributive marker|company|if|stock|market value|is|1 billion A company that earns 100 million a year, if its stock market value is 1 billion.

PE 就是 10 PE|is The PE is 10.

意味着 买下 公司 后 大概 10 年 能 回本 means|buy|company|after|approximately|10 years|can|break even This means that after buying the company, it will take about 10 years to break even.

PB 和 PE 可以 有效 评价 整个 市场 的 股价 到底 算不算 高 PB and PE can effectively evaluate whether the overall market's stock prices are considered high.

今天 A股 3687 支 股票 的 PB 中位数 是 2.3 today|A-shares|number of|stocks|attributive marker|price-to-book ratio|median|is Today, the median PB of 3687 A-shares is 2.3.

PE 中位数 是 32 市盈率|median|is The median PE is 32.

肯定 是 比 2015 年 便宜 多 了 definitely|is|than|year 2015|cheaper|much|emphasis marker It is definitely much cheaper than in 2015.

现在 让 我们 来 看看 过去 20 年 的 中国 股市 now|let|us|come|take a look|past|years|attributive marker|China|stock market Now let's take a look at the Chinese stock market over the past 20 years.

这 是 2000-2019 年 的 A股 指数 this|is|year|attributive marker|A-share|index This is the A-share index from 2000 to 2019.

指数 能 直观 表示 整个 市场 到底 涨 了 多少 index|can|intuitively|represent|entire|market|exactly|rise|past tense marker|how much The index can intuitively show how much the entire market has risen.

把 1999 年 12 月 30 号 所有 股票 价格 加权 平均 后 的 价格 设定 为 起点 ： 1000 点 take|year 1999|December|30th|all|stock|price|weighted|average|after|attributive marker|price|set|as|starting point|1000 points Setting the weighted average price of all stock prices on December 30, 1999, as the starting point: 1000 points.

之后 比如 2007 年 3 月 2 号 指数 超过 2000 点 after|for example|year 2007|March|2nd|index|exceeded|2000 points Afterwards, for example, on March 2, 2007, the index exceeded 2000 points.

就 说明 此时 所有 股价 平均 后 的 价格 是 1999 年 12 月 30 号 的 两倍 just|explain|at this time|all|stock prices|average|after|attributive marker|price|is|year 1999|December|30th|attributive marker|double This indicates that the average price of all stocks at that time is double the price on December 30, 1999.

我们 可以 在 这张 图里 找到 几个 快速 上涨 区间 we|can|in|this|picture|find|several|rapid|increase|intervals We can find several periods of rapid increase in this chart.

也 就是 人们 常说 的 牛市 also|is|people|commonly said|attributive marker|bull market This is what people commonly refer to as a bull market.

比如 2014 年 6 月 30 日 到 2015 年 6 月 30 日 for example|year 2014|June|30th|to|year 2015|June|30th For example, from June 30, 2014, to June 30, 2015.

A股 指数 从 2300 点 涨 到 了 最高 7257 点 A-shares|index|from|2300 points|rise|to|past tense marker|highest|7257 points The A-share index rose from 2300 points to a maximum of 7257 points.

1年 翻 了 三倍 year|multiply|past tense marker|three times It tripled in one year.

和 股价 同时 暴涨 的 and|stock price|simultaneously|surge|attributive marker Along with the stock price, it surged.

是 股民 投入 的 钱 is|stock investors|invested|attributive marker|money It is the money invested by stock investors.

这 是 A股 每月 的 成交 金额 this|is|A-shares|every month|attributive marker|transaction|amount This is the monthly trading volume of A-shares.

和 股价 对比 一下 就 会 发现 and|stock price|compare|a bit|then|will|find Comparing it with stock prices, you will find that

股价 一 涨 大家 就 开始 买 股票 stock price|once|rise|everyone|then|start|buy|stocks when stock prices rise, everyone starts buying stocks.

在 2014 年 6 月 股民 们 只 买 了 3 万亿元 股票 at|year 2014|June|stock investors|plural marker|only|bought|past tense marker|3 trillion yuan|stocks In June 2014, investors only bought 3 trillion yuan worth of stocks.

但是 到 了 15 年 6 月 大家 一个月 就 买 了 36 万亿 but|by|past tense marker|15 years|June|everyone|one month|just|bought|past tense marker|36 trillion But by June 2015, everyone bought 36 trillion yuan worth of stocks in just one month.

股民 在 牛市 这 几个 月 买 股票 花 的钱 stock investors|in|bull market|these|several|months|buy|stocks|spend|money Investors spent more money on stocks during these months of the bull market.

比 前 几年 加 起来 都 要 多 than|previous|few years|add|together|all|need|more It is more than the total amount spent in the previous years combined.

还 记得 PB 吗 ？ still|remember|PB|question marker Do you still remember PB?

PB 越 高 股票 就 越 贵 市净率|越|高|股票|就|越|贵 The higher the PB, the more expensive the stock.

我们 可以 画 一条 05-19 年 A股 PB 中位数 的 曲线 we|can|draw|one|2005 to 2019|A-share|price-to-book|median|attributive marker|curve We can draw a curve of the median PB of A-shares from 2005 to 2019.

并 把 指数 划分 成 三个 区间 and|make|index|divide|into|three|intervals And divide the index into three intervals.

0-2.5、2.5-4 和 4 以上 0-2.5, 2.5-4, and above 4

现在 我们 把 PB 大于 4 的 时间段 高亮 出来 now|we|put|PB|greater than|attributive marker|time period|highlight|out Now we highlight the time periods where PB is greater than 4

如果 在 这些 区间 买入 股票 if|at|these|intervals|buy|stocks If you buy stocks in these intervals

持有 3 年 亏损 的 概率 大于 90% holding|3 years|loss|attributive marker|probability|greater than the probability of losing money after holding for 3 years is greater than 90%

但 刚刚 的 成交 数据 告诉 我们 but|just now|attributive marker|transaction|data|tell|us But the recent transaction data tells us

大多数 人 就是 在 这里 买入 的 most|people|just|at|here|buy in|attributive marker that most people bought in here.

这 就是 你 为什么 炒股 亏钱 的 答案 this|is|you|why|stock trading|lose money|attributive marker|answer This is the answer to why you lose money in stock trading.

你 买 的 太 贵 了 you|buy|attributive marker|too|expensive|emphasis marker You bought too expensively.

不仅 是 中国 股市 not only|is|China|stock market Not only the Chinese stock market

其他 国家 的 股市 也 都 符合 这一 规律 other|countries|attributive marker|stock market|also|all|conform to|this|rule but also the stock markets of other countries follow this pattern.

在 这份 信 达 证券 2013 年 的 研究 中 in|this||||year 2013|attributive marker|research|in In this research by Xinda Securities in 2013,

对 美股 、港股 等 10 个 地区 的 股市 做 了 PEPB 和 持有 时间 的 相关性 分析 to|US stock market|Hong Kong stock market|etc|individual|region|attributive marker|stock market|do|past tense marker|PEPB|and|holding|time|attributive marker|correlation|analysis a correlation analysis of PEPB and holding time was conducted on the stock markets of 10 regions including the US and Hong Kong.

以 这 张 美股 的 分析 图 为 例 using|this|one|US stock market|attributive marker|analysis|chart|as|example Taking this analysis chart of US stocks as an example.

横坐标 是 持有 时间 horizontal axis|is|holding|time The horizontal axis represents the holding time.

纵坐标 是 买入 时 的 PE 倍数 vertical coordinate|is|buy|time|attributive marker|price-to-earnings|multiple The vertical axis represents the PE ratio at the time of purchase.

颜色 越 偏 红 赚 的 越 多 color|the more|偏向偏重|red|earn|attributive marker|the more|more The redder the color, the more profit is made.

可以 看到 买 得 便宜 、持有 的 时间 长 can|see|buy|attribute marker|cheap|hold|attributive marker|time|long You can see that buying cheaply and holding for a long time

通常 能 获得 更好 的 收益 usually|can|obtain|better|attributive marker|returns usually yields better returns

但 如果 买 贵 了 but|if|buy|expensive|emphasis marker But if you buy at a high price

拿 多少 年 都 不会 赚钱 的 take|how many|years|all|will not|make money|attributive marker no matter how many years you hold, you won't make a profit.

在 香港 、印度 、韩国 、泰国 、印尼 in|Hong Kong|India|South Korea|Thailand|Indonesia In Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia.

我们 也 都 能 看到 类似 的 的 情况 We can also see similar situations.

但 也 不是 买 的 便宜 拿 的 久 就 一定 能 赚 到 钱 but|also|not|buy|attributive marker|cheap|use|attributive marker|long|then|definitely|can|earn|to|money But just because something is cheap to buy and lasts long doesn't mean you can definitely make money.

持有 单支 股票 总是 充满 了 风险 holding|single|stock|always|filled with|emphasis marker|risk Holding a single stock is always full of risks.

比如 老板 离婚 、老板 性侵 、老板 跑路 for example|boss|divorce|boss|sexual assault|boss|abscond For example, the boss's divorce, the boss's sexual assault, or the boss running away.

甚至 是 扇贝 跑 路 都 会 让 股价 大跌 even|is|scallop|run|away|all|can|cause|stock price|plummet Even the running away of scallops can cause a significant drop in stock prices.

相比之下 买入 指数 是 一种 更 稳 的 方案 in contrast|buy|index|is|one kind of|more|stable|attributive marker|plan In comparison, buying into an index is a more stable option.

比如 沪 深 300 就 代表 了 上海 和 深圳 证券市场 中 的 300 家 优质 公司 for example|Shanghai|Shenzhen|just|represent|past tense marker|Shanghai|and|Shenzhen|securities market|in|attributive marker|family company|quality|company For instance, the CSI 300 represents 300 quality companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.

买 这个 就 相当于 买 了 这 300 支 股票 的 集合 buy|this|just|equivalent to|buy|past tense marker|these|measure word for stocks|stocks|attributive marker|collection Buying this is equivalent to buying a collection of these 300 stocks.

不管 哪家 公司 的 老板 突然 离婚 no matter|which|company|attributive marker|boss|suddenly|divorce No matter which company's boss suddenly gets divorced,

都 不太可能 影响 整个 指数 all|unlikely|affect|entire|index it is unlikely to affect the entire index.

所以 如果 你 真的 想 在 股市 里 赚钱 so|if|you|really|want|in|stock market|inside|make money So if you really want to make money in the stock market,

可以 准备 一笔 未来 三年 都 不会 用到 的 闲钱 can|prepare|a sum of|future|three years|all|will not|use|attributive marker|idle money You can prepare a sum of idle money that you won't need for the next three years.

在 低价 区间 买入 沪 深 300 这样 的 指数 at|low price|range|buy|Shanghai|Shenzhen|such|attributive marker|index Buy indices like the CSI 300 at a low price range.

耐心 等待 几年 patience|wait|several years Patiently wait for a few years.

平均 每年 或许 可以 赚个 10% average|per year|perhaps|can|earn On average, you might earn about 10% each year.

但 对于 大多数 普通人 来说 but|for|most|ordinary people|speaking But for most ordinary people,

想要 炒股 不 亏 钱 want to|trade stocks|not|lose|money if you want to trade stocks without losing money,

最好 别 炒股 best|don't|speculate in stocks it's best not to trade stocks.

特别 是 不要 在 牛市 买入 股票 especially|is|do not|in|bull market|buy|stocks Especially, do not buy stocks in a bull market.

不要 幻想 通过 炒股 发财 do not|fantasize|through|stock trading|get rich Do not fantasize about getting rich through stock trading.

不要 用 你 买房 买车 结婚 看病 的 钱 炒股 do not|use|your|buy a house|buy a car|get married|see a doctor|attributive marker|money|speculate in stocks Do not use the money you need for buying a house, a car, getting married, or medical expenses to trade stocks.

更 不要 借钱 炒股 more|do not|borrow money|speculate in stocks And do not borrow money to trade stocks.

要不然 像 这位 李先生 一样 抵押 房产 血本无归 otherwise|like|this|Mr Li|the same|mortgage|property|lose everything Otherwise, you might end up like Mr. Li, who mortgaged his property and lost everything.

一 激动 把 帮 自己 炒股 的 朋友 捅 死 就 不好 了 one|excited|to|help|oneself|stock trading|attributive marker|friend|stab|to death|then|not good|emphasis marker One is excited to stab to death a friend who helps oneself with stock trading, which is not good.