The Biggest Myth About Climate Change (1) El mayor mito sobre el cambio climático (1)

- If you've spent any time

at all talking about climate change basically

anywhere on the ol' world wide web,

then you've probably seen some smarty pants |||||розумник|

chime in with a comment like this one. включитися|||||||

"The climate change is naturally.

Ever heard of an Ice Age?

I read there were palm trees on Antarctica once."

Checkmate, human-caused climate change disproved. Шах і мат|||||спростовано

Now if you're like me, this comment makes your eye twitch

in that particular way that only seems to happen

when you're considering just how hard you can smack ||||||||потрапити

your own forehead without giving yourself a concussion. |||||||сотрясіння мозку

But then, right before you do that,

you remember you're an educator. ||||вчитель

And that there was a time in your life,

not that long ago, when you too did not understand

this particular thing.

You then recall that each of us navigates complex ideas

such as this one with our own unique levels of education

and experience, the boundaries and limitations

of which are often the result of much larger issues

of access or luck that are far outside of our own control,

and that misconceptions or failures of understanding

are just as often the result of circumstances,

and not lack of a desire to learn.

With this realization in hand,

it dawns on you that for every idea |світає||||||

we may view today as common sense, or even obvious,

we were all ignorant once. ми|||неосвічені|

And that people like this are definitely

not just trolling the rest of us ||тролінг||||

with bald-faced climate denial. |бald|||

So in that spirit,

let us embrace the opportunity to use this

as a teaching moment, a chance to reduce our ignorance, |||||||||невігластво

expand our enlightenment, so that we may all emerge

from this chrysalis of inexperience ||||недосвідченість

understanding something that we did not before,

and perhaps, together, we can confine this to the dustbin |||||обмежити||||смітник

of YouTube comment history.

We're gonna debunk this, okay? That's what I'm saying. ||спростувати це||||||

(upbeat music)

Hey smart people, Joe here.

So here's the deal. Natural forces influence climate change.

This has been true throughout Earth's history,

and it's still true today.

Climate scientists know this.

In fact, it is by studying

these natural climate-changing forces

that we understand much of what we do know

about human-caused climate change.

So not only are climate scientists aware

of these natural cycles, they discovered most of them.

As a result, every climate model used

by climate scientists today factors in the effects

of these natural forces.

And this is important because even

with all of these natural ways

to change the climate included,

the only way to get climate models to even come close

to what is actually happening,

is to add in all the stuff that humans are doing

to the climate too.

In other words, natural forces can not account

for the speed and scale of climate change

since the start of the industrial revolution,

particularly from the second half

of the 20th century to today.

To explain that, we have to add one more factor

to the equation, us.

So here's what we're gonna do in this video,

we're gonna talk about the big-picture of Earth's climate

and how, when certain things get out of balance,

Earth's climate warms up, or cools off. ||гріє||||

Then, we're gonna unpack a bunch of those natural forces,

again, that scientists know a lot about,

that push Earth's climate one way or the other.

And finally, we're gonna explain how, exactly,

we know that what's happening to Earth's climate today

and into the near future isn't due to those natural forces,

but rather is our fault.

(twinkling music) мерехтливий|

So, Earth's climate, how that work?

Well, it's complicated.

Fully understanding the thermodynamic Rube Goldberg machine |||термодинамічний|Рубе|Руба Голдберга|

that is The Climate is more appropriate

for the scope of a full university-level course,

not a single YouTube video.

But the part of Earth's climate

we're most interested in is temperature.

Temperature is essentially just a measure

of how fast something's atoms are jiggling. ||||||тремтіння

More jiggliness means higher temperature |тремтливість|||

and less jiggliness means lower temperature.

You might also know that when something is jiggling a lot,

it has more kinetic energy than something

that isn't jiggling as much.

♪ Don't jiggle jiggle ♪ |трясти|трясти

- You see, something doesn't have heat, it has energy.

We can think of heat more like energy on the move,

from some place over here to someplace over there. ||||||якомусь місці||

So when we heat something up what we really mean

is we've moved some energy into that system,

which can make its stuff jiggle more,

which raises its temperature. |підвищує||

And sometimes the thing we've heated up

can give its energy to something else, and heat it up,

and so on, and so on.

Congrats, now you know enough thermodynamics

to figure out global warming.

So, Earth's temperature begins here.

A gigantic ball of jiggly stuff called the sun. ||||тремтячий||||

Energy from the sun aka sunlight

takes a roughly eight minute trip to Earth,

where right off the bat about a third is reflected back

into space by bright stuff like clouds and ice.

Most of the rest is absorbed by the land and ocean,

a small amount is absorbed directly by the molecules

in the atmosphere.

All of this absorbed energy heats up our air,

water, and land.

It basically makes all of Earth's atomic stuff more jiggly.

But as all that stuff-rocks, air, oceans, warms up,

they can transfer their heat to other stuff,

in the form of thermal infrared radiation energy,

the stuff The Predator can see.

So as land, for instance, gives off energy

it originally got from sunlight, that energy zips up

into the atmosphere where it's absorbed by water vapor

and other gasses like carbon dioxide and methane.

But this is also where things really start to warm up,

because these are those greenhouse gases тому що|ці||||

you've heard so much about.

And they're special, because when any of that energy

that Earth absorbs and then re-releases

hits a greenhouse gas molecule, it can suck it right up

and re-radiate it, warming the atmosphere ||випромінювати||||

and the land and the ocean and everything else.

It's just like how bricks in a pizza

oven hold on to heat and slowly radiate it out духовка|||||||||

so it can be absorbed by that delicious bubbly cheese ||||||||пухкий|

that you're gonna burn your mouth on,

no matter how many times you've promised yourself

you learned your lesson last time.

This absorbing and re-radiating of heat by the atmosphere

is the greenhouse effect, and just like your favorite dab

on Hot Ones, it can actually be a good thing

as long as there's not too much of it.

Because if we had no greenhouse effect,

the average temperature on Earth

would be more like -18 degree Celsius

instead of the comfy 15 degree Celsius that it is today. |||||||||сьогодні

In other words, we'd live on an ice planet.

Or not live, more like it.

Of course, on the other hand,

if there's extra greenhouse effect, like say,

from the addition of a bunch more Greenhouse Gases

to the atmosphere, then you get,

well, what's happening today.

The planet gets hotter, the air, the land, the water,

all of it.

And like the little domino in that one meme,

what seems like a tiny change here to Earth's temperature,

down the line can mess up some pretty big things,

wind, ocean currents, precipitation, you name it. |||опади|||

This finally brings us to that title card

we put up at the beginning of this whole section

of the video.

Big picture, you can think of all this energy transfer,

from sun to land and ocean to atmosphere,

back to land and ocean, and all the little energy swaps ||||||||||обміни

in between, well it's kinda like trickle down economics, ||||||потік||

only it actually works.

When you think about it,

Earth's climate works kind of like a business.

You've got budgets and inventories. ||бюджети||інвентарі

Just like with money, Earth's energy budget

is the balance of what comes in from the sun

and what goes out into space over a certain amount of time.

Whether that budget is positive or negative,

gaining or losing

impacts the total energy inventory on Earth.

Basically, if Earth's not selling enough energy

back into space, it's gonna end up with excess inventory.

Only in this case, it's not a warehouse |||||||склад

full of rubber duckies or pandemic Pelotons, |||качечки|||Пелотони

it's energy that is heating up land, air, and ocean a lot.

How much is a lot?

Well, the unit we use for energy is called the Joule. ||||||||||джоуль

Not to be confused with Jewel or Juul. |||||Дорога річ||Джул

One Joule is about as much energy as it takes

to heat up a thimbleful of water by one degree Celsius. ||||чашечка води||||||

According to the IPCC, those rascals |||МГЕО||пустуни

who keep scaring the pants off everyone ||лякаючи||||

with those darn climate reports,

every square meter of Earth's surface

has absorbed about 0.57 Joules of energy має|||джоулів||

every second since 1971.

Doesn't sound too bad, right?

Thing is, there's a lot of square meters

on this here planet.

Approximately, this many of them.

Altogether, that's 291 trillion extra Joules of heat,

or the equivalent of detonating 4.5 Hiroshima atomic bombs ||||детонування|Хіросіма||

or blowing up 10 Big Bens full of dynamite every second, ||||Біг Бенів|||динаміт||

for Elon Musk's entire life. ||Маска||життя

So now you've got the basic understanding

of how Earth's climate energy budget works,

and why it's so full of extra heat energy.

But hey, nobody seriously argues ||||суперечить

that Earth isn't getting warmer.

Because we all have thermometers. ||||термометри

What we're here to talk about is why.

Specifically, whether all of this could be explained

by natural forces and cycles instead of us.

Now the difference in incoming and outgoing energy

is described by a term called climate forcing,

or more often, radiative forcing. |||радіаційний|

If that number is negative, the planet cools off.

If that number is positive, it's getting hot in hur... |||||||||тут

There're many things that can force Earth's climate Є багато|||||||

to take in or put out more or less energy from the sun.

And many of them happen totally naturally,

and have either happened many times in Earth's past,

or are still happening today.

So let's go through several of these, learn how they work,

and what effect they have on Earth's comfy warm blanket |||||||||теплий покрив

of an atmosphere.

Because lists are fun, and there's really no better way

to do this.

As we discussed, basically all the energy

that enters the Earth system comes from the sun.

But you might be surprised to learn

that the sun doesn't always shine the same.

And I'm not talking about how it disappears every night

without so much as a goodbye, making everything dark

and scary and full of weird noises that make me,

I mean you hide under a blanket

'til the safety of dawn's first light. ||||світла світанку||

No, I'm talking about the sun's natural cycles

of dimming and brightening. |потемніння||освітлення

Now, over long periods of time,

as in over the sun's entire four-plus billion years

of existence, it's been gradually getting brighter, ||||||світліше

by about 0.009% every megayear, which is a fancy way |||мегарік|||||

to say 1 million years 'cause it sounds cool.

And while this very, and I must emphasize very,

gradual brightening is important when you're considering,

say, the conditions during the origin of life

on Earth versus today, it simply isn't happening fast enough

to account for recent rapid global warming.

But the sun does go through cycles of brightening

and dimming on much shorter time scales.

For the past half century or so,

we've been able to measure the sun's intensity

really accurately with all our space machines.

Before that, thanks to astronomers looking at the sun

and counting sunspots, ||сонячні плями

which by the way you should never ever do,

we know now that the sun's intensity goes up and down

by about 0.1% every 11 years.

So hey! The sun gets brighter sometimes!

That could throw things off.

Unfortunately, when you average out the brightness

of the sun over the past four decades,

it's been remarkably steady, |||стабільний

even maybe showing a slight dimming trend.

All while Earth's average temperature, ||||температура

as you are probably tired of hearing by now, ||||||||тепер