Is Reality Real? The Simulation Argument ||||Mô phỏng| ||||Simulation| Ist die Wirklichkeit real? Das Argument der Simulation ¿Es real la realidad? El argumento de la simulación La réalité est-elle réelle ? L'argument de la simulation 現実はリアルか？シミュレーションの議論 현실은 진짜인가? 시뮬레이션 논쟁 Is de werkelijkheid echt? Het simulatieargument Czy rzeczywistość jest prawdziwa? Argument symulacji A realidade é real? O Argumento da Simulação Реальна ли реальность? Аргумент о симуляции Gerçeklik Gerçek mi? Simülasyon Tartışması Чи існує реальність? Аргумент симуляції 现实是真实的吗？模拟论证 現實是真的嗎？模擬論證

We humans are unable to experience the true nature of the universe, unfiltered. ||||||||||||không bị lọc ||||||||||||ungefiltert ||||||||||||without distortion 未经过滤，我们人类无法体验宇宙的真实本质。 Our senses and brains can only process a fraction of the world. |||||||||||thế giới ||||||verarbeiten||||| 我们的感官和大脑只能处理世界的一小部分。

So we have to use concepts and tools, to learn about the true nature of reality 所以我们必须使用概念和工具来了解现实的本质

Technological progress not only widened our knowledge about the universe, ||||a élargi||||| ||||erweiterte||||| ||||expanded||||| ||||広がった||||| 技术进步不仅拓展了我们对宇宙的认识，

it also made us aware of unsettling possibilities. ||||||không thoải mái| ||||||disturbing| aynı zamanda tedirgin edici olasılıkların da farkına varmamızı sağladı. 它也使我们意识到令人不安的可能性。

In the future, it might become possible to simulate entire universes. ||||||||simulieren|| В будущем, возможно, станет возможным моделировать целые вселенные. Gelecekte, tüm evrenleri simüle etmek mümkün hale gelebilir.

But if this is an option, how can we know that it's not already happened? 但如果这是一个选择，我们怎么知道它还没有发生呢？

What if we are not creators, but creations? |||||||Schöpfungen |||||||創造物 Ya biz yaratıcı değil de yaratılanlarsak? 如果我们不是创造者，而是被创造物，那会怎样？

Is it possible that we are not real, and we don't even know it?

If our current understanding of physics is correct, Eğer şu anki fizik anlayışımız doğruysa,

Then, it's impossible to simulate the whole universe, with its trillions and trillions of things. 那么，模拟整个宇宙及其数以万亿计的事物是不可能的。

But we don't actually need to, anyway. Aber das müssen wir sowieso nicht. Ama aslında buna ihtiyacımız yok.

We only need enough universe to fool the inhabitants of our simulation, ||||||tromper||||| ||||||täuschen||||| ||||||||simulated beings||| Wir brauchen nur genug Universum, um die Bewohner unserer Simulation Sadece simülasyonumuzun sakinlerini kandırmaya yetecek kadar evrene ihtiyacımız var,

into thinking that they're real. zum Denken zu bringen, dass sie echt sind.

Who needs billions of galaxies?

We only need the space our subjects are allowed to explore. Sadece deneklerimizin keşfetmesine izin verilen alana ihtiyacımız var.

The vast universe could just be a flat projection, and they would have no way to know. ||||||||Projektion|||||||| ||||||||投影|||||||| Uçsuz bucaksız evren düz bir projeksiyon olabilir ve bunu bilmeleri mümkün değildir.

What about small things like cells or bacteria?

We don't really need them.

When you use a microscope, what you see could be instantly created. ||||Mikroskop||||||| ||||||||||immediately| Bir mikroskop kullandığınızda, gördüğünüz şey anında yaratılabilir.

Same with atoms the chair you're sitting on right now does not need to be Aynı şekilde şu anda oturduğunuz sandalyenin de atomik olması gerekmez.

simulated with quadrillions of atoms. ||trillions of billions|| ||京|| gesimuleerd met biljoenen atomen. katrilyonlarca atomla simüle edildi.

We just need the outermost layer of it, ||||bề mặt ngoài cùng||| ||||extérieure||| ||||äußere Schicht||| ||||最外層||| Sadece en dış katmanına ihtiyacımız var,

it might be empty inside, until you decide to break it open. 中は空かもしれませんが、あなたがそれを壊すことを決めるまでです。

Your body might feel like it's filled with bubbly things, but it might be empty, until you open it. ||||||||bubulles|||||||||| ||||||||Sprudelndem|||||||||| ||||||||effervescent sensations|||||||||| ||||||||泡のような|||||||||| あなたの体は泡のようなものが詰まっているように感じるかもしれませんが、それは空かもしれません。開けるまで。

The minimum requirement for our simulation, is only the consciousness of our virtual humans. ||Anforderung||||||||||| |||||||||awareness of existence|||| ||要件||||||||||| 私たちのシミュレーションに必要な最小限の要件は、私たちのバーチャルな人間の意識だけです。 Simülasyonumuz için asgari gereksinim, sadece sanal insanlarımızın bilincidir.

Our subjects just need to think the simulation is real.

Okay, so are we being simulated?

Well, maybe, but there are a few conditions that need to be met. ||||||||die||||erfüllt Belki, ama karşılanması gereken birkaç koşul var.

Obviously, we have no authority over this topic, so please take everything we say with a grain of salt. ||||||||||||||mit|a||| ||||||||||||||||skepticism|| ||||||||||||||を鵜呑みにせず|||| 明らかに、私たちはこのトピックに対する権限を持っていないので、私たちが言うことはすべて鵜呑みにしないでください。

Based on a modified version of the original simulation argument by Nick Bostrom, ||||||||||||Bostrom |||||||||||Nick Bostrom|Bostrom ||||||||||||ボストロム ニック・ボストロムによる元のシミュレーション仮説の修正版に基づいて、

we have five assumptions for you. |||giả định|| |||hypothèses|| 私たちはあなたのために5つの前提を用意しました。 we hebben vijf aannames voor u.

If they're true, you dear viewer are living in a simulation. |||||khán giả|||||

Assumption one, Giả định| Annahme|

it's possible to simulate consciousness

Nobody knows what consciousness is.

For the sake of argument, let's assume that you could generate consciousness by simulating a brain. |||||||||||||mô phỏng|| ||bien||||||||||||| Für|||||||||||||simulieren|| |||||||||||||シミュレーション|| 議論のために、脳をシミュレーションすることで意識を生成できると仮定しましょう。

Brains are pretty complex. 脳は非常に複雑です。

If you count every interaction between synapses as one operation, ||||||Synapsen||| ||||||neural connections' interactions||| Si cuentas cada interacción entre sinapsis como una operación, シナプス間のすべての相互作用を一つの操作としてカウントするなら、

your brain runs at about ten to the power of seventeen, for one hundred million billion operations, per second. |||||十の冪||||||||||||| tu cerebro funciona a una velocidad de diez a la potencia de diecisiete, es decir, cien millones de billones de operaciones por segundo.

Let's generously assume we need ten to the power of twenty operations, |một cách hào|||||||||| |großzügig|||||||||| |generously|||||||||| |寛大に|||||||||| Supongamos generosamente que necesitamos operaciones de diez a la potencia de veinte,

to simulate one second of human consciousness. para simular un segundo de conciencia humana.

But, we don't want to simulate just one human... Pero, no queremos simular sólo un humano...

We want to simulate all of human history at once, so we can skip around. Queremos simular toda la historia de la humanidad a la vez, para poder saltar de un lado a otro.

Let's say we want to simulate two hundred billion humans, with an average life span of fifty years. ||||||||||||||durée de vie||| ||||||||||||||Lebensspanne|||

One year has thirty million seconds times fifty years Un año tiene treinta millones de segundos por cincuenta años

times two hundred billion humans por doscientos mil millones de humanos

times ten to the power of twenty operations. veces diez a la potencia de veinte operaciones.

So we need a computer able to handle million, trillion, trillion, trillion operations per second. Así que necesitamos un ordenador capaz de realizar millones, billones, trillones, trillones de operaciones por segundo.

More operations than there are stars in the observable universe. ||||||||vũ trụ quan| Más operaciones que estrellas hay en el universo observable.

The computer like this is just impossible. El ordenador así es imposible.

Except, maybe it isn't. Excepto que tal vez no lo sea.

Assumption two,

technological progress will not stop anytime soon. |||||bald nicht| el progreso tecnológico no se detendrá pronto.

If we assume that technological progress continues in a similar fashion as it has so far, Si suponemos que el progreso tecnológico continúa de forma similar a como lo ha hecho hasta ahora,

then there might be galaxy spanning civilizations, with unlimited computer power at some point. |||||vũ trụ rộng|||||||| |||||galaxieübergre|||||||| |||||covering vast distances|||||||| entonces podría haber civilizaciones que abarcaran galaxias, con una potencia informática ilimitada en algún momento.

Beings on a technology level so advanced, that we could barely distinguish them from god's. ||||||||||à peine|||| |||||||||||tell apart||| Seres de un nivel tecnológico tan avanzado, que apenas podríamos distinguirlos de los dioses.

A computer that can handle a million trillion, trillion, trillion operations is serious business,

but there are actually concepts for computers, which could handle this.

The Matrioshka Brain, is the theoretical megastructure, |não khối Matri|||||cấu trúc kh |マトリョーシカ||||| De Matrioshka Brain, is de theoretische megastructuur,

made up of billions of parts orbiting a star, feeding on its radiation. ||||||quay quanh||||||

A computer of this scale, would have enough power to simulate many thousands,

if not millions of humanities, at the same time. ||||Geisteswissenschaften|||| ||||人文学|||| zo niet miljoenen geesteswetenschappen, tegelijkertijd.

Other technologies, like high-end future quantum computers might lower the size drastically, |Technologien|||||||||||

so it might be possible to do this with a structure the size of a large city, or even smaller.

But, only if there's still someone around to build the computer. しかし、コンピュータを作るためにまだ誰かが周りにいる場合のみ。

Assumption three, 仮定3、

advanced civilizations don't destroy themselves. 高度な文明は自らを滅ぼさない。

If there is a point at which all civilizations destroyed themselves, this whole discussion ends here.

Looking into space, you'd expect to universe filled, with millions of alien civilizations, 宇宙を見上げると、何百万もの異星文明で満たされた宇宙を期待するでしょうが、

but we see nobody. 誰も見えません。

the reason for this might be, Great Filters. その理由は、大きなフィルターかもしれません。

Great Filters are barriers life has to overcome, like nuclear war,

asteroids, climate change or a black hole generator. |||||||máy phát điện |||||||Generator

If life is inherently self-destructive, then there are no simulations. |||von Natur aus|||||||Simulationen |||By nature||||||| ||||||||||シミュレーション

We explain this in more detail, in our Fermi Paradox video. Assumption four,

super advanced civilizations, want to run simulations.

When we speak of posthuman civilizations, we don't know what we're dealing with ||||hậu nhân loại|||||||| ||||posthuman|||||||umgehen| ||||Beyond human evolution|||||||| ||||ポストヒューマン|||||||| Als we het hebben over posthumane beschavingen, weten we niet waar we mee te maken hebben

To think we know what beings as powerful as gods want, is pretty arrogant. |||||||||||||傲慢だ

Imagine the smartest ant on earth living next to an amusement park, |||con kiến|||||||| ||||||||||Vergnügungspark|Vergnügungspark ||||||||||funfair| ||||||||||遊園地|

It's curious about what humans are up to, so you try to explain. Unfortunately, the ant just doesn't understand.

The concept of rollercoasters and standing in lines and holidays and fun, |||montagnes russes|||||||| |||Achterbahnen|||||||| |||thrill rides|||||||| |||ジェットコースター||||||||

doesn't make sense to an ant living an ant life.

It's the same with us and a posthuman being, |||||||beyond human evolution|

compared to them, we are ants.

Running simulations for fun or science, might be an absurdly stupid idea to them. |||||||||hết sức|||| |||||||||absurd dumm|||| |||||||||ridiculously||||

But, if they do want to run simulations for whatever reasons and assumptions one, two, three are true too, しかし、彼らが何らかの理由でシミュレーションを行いたい場合、仮定の一、二、三が真であるなら、

then the chances are not zero that you are living inside a simulation. あなたがシミュレーションの中に住んでいる可能性はゼロではありません。

Assumption five, 仮定五、

if there are a lot of simulations, you are probably inside a simulation.

if there are simulated civilizations, It's likely that there are a lot of them.

After all, we assume that post human beings have access to practically unlimited computing power.

So if they run simulations, it would be convenient to run millions or even billions of them. ||||||||便利な||||||||

If there are billions of simulated universes, there are probably trillions and trillions of

simulated conscious beings.

which would mean that the vast majority of all conscious beings that will ever have existed,

are simulated.

So, for every conscious being made of flesh, a billion simulated ones exists. ||||存在|||||||| |||||||chair||||| |||||||Fleisch||||| |||||||肉|||||

Since we have no way of knowing if we are simulated or not,

in this case, the chances of you being one of the nine hundred and ninety nine million

nine hundred and ninety nine thousand nine hundred ninety nine simulated ones, are pretty high.

So, what you consider reality, might not be real at all

You really might be... du|||

simulated.

All of this is based on a lot of assumptions that we can't really test right now

So many scientists disagree with this whole thought experiment. |||nicht einverstanden|||||

So don't burn your house down to test if there will be glitches. ||||||||||||problèmes ||||||||||||Fehler ||||||||||||unexpected issues ||||||||||||不具合 If you are simulated, not that much changes for you

you might be on a small planet speeding through eternal nothingness, ||||||||||hư vô |||||||||endless empty space|

or a simulation inside a computer.

your existence does not become more or less scary and bizarre. ||||||||||strange

All we can hope to do is try to live good lives, and have a good time.

And hope that if we actually are simulations in a supercomputer, ||||||||||siêu máy tính ||||||||||Supercomputer ||||||||||スーパーコンピュータ

nobody trips over the power cable. |ne se prend les pieds|||| |stolpert||||Kabel |stumbles over||||

Oh, oh, oh no, I think I just unplugged the simulation ||||||||abgeschaltet|| ||||||||プラグを抜いた|| Oh, oh, oh nee, ik denk dat ik de simulatie zojuist heb losgekoppeld

But what if that doesn't matter, what if we are in one right now? What if you are simulated?

Jake, over at Vsauce3 is looking into that. Jake|||Vsauce3|||| |||ヴィソース|||| Jake, de Vsauce3 está investigando eso.

Click here to watch his video and subscribe to his channel.

Why are you still here? go over to Vsauce3 watch the video and subscribe, 你为什么还在这里？去 Vsauce3 观看视频并订阅，

we promise, it's worth your time...